What Was Saddam Thinking?

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

Attention focuses on what exactly went through the minds of the major players on the scene. When Senator Kerry voted to authorize military action by the president, did he expect such action to be taken? If he expected something else, what was it? A supererogatory resolution by the Security Council? If so, why did he not stress the need for it at the time?


As for President Bush, when he and Vice President Cheney declaimed that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, do we think he really believed this? If not, he went to extraordinary pains to behave as though he did believe it, which included going to war, of course. And before that, supporting detachments of U.N. inspectors who prodded about that huge country looking for weapons of mass destruction until they were kicked out by Saddam Hussein. These inspectors were succeeded, at war’s end, by American military investigators who reported every day on what they found, which was mostly nothing.


What is most interesting is the question: What on earth was going on in the mind of Saddam? A man who builds himself 100 palaces has a high investment in longevity. But here was this autocrat in Baghdad teasing into combat America, which is the most formidable military power in the world. What was going through his mind? He had had a keen experience of American military power only 12 years before. What was the Republican Guard supposed to come up with that would repel the invader? Weapons of mass destruction?


That is what was feared by America. Perhaps not nuclear weapons – these were thought to be inoperative, ever since Israel struck Iraq’s nuclear facilities in 1981. The talk was of chemical weapons and biological weapons. But not only were such weapons not deployed, the inspection team headed by Charles Duelfer reports that they were not extant. So what, one repeats, was Saddam counting on that would permit him an uninterrupted lifetime in his palaces?


We have learned through Mr. Duelfer that Saddam was a super-confident scofflaw, perhaps the richest in history. Iraq’s oil production had been between 3 million and 3.5 million barrels a day. When the trading ban was activated, in 1990, oil sales were cut off. But quickly there was a hue and cry that the primary victims of the embargo were Iraqi civilians. Along came the oil-for-food program, which allowed the sale of 2.1 million barrels a day of Iraqi oil as a means of generating income to feed those civilians.


Weare talking about a great deal of money. Two million-plus barrels a day yields 766 million barrels a year. If the oil was fetching a measly $15 a barrel, we are talking about $11.5 billion. We know now that a great scandal was born. We don’t yet know how many profiteers were on the scene, but there is reason to guess that they were numerous, and that some of them were highly stationed and might at this moment be wearing red wigs and dark glasses to disguise themselves.


But Saddam surely knew who they were. His attitude toward the embargo was lordly in its arrogance. He reassured military leaders at a meeting in January 2000 that he would have no trouble at all getting the materiel he wanted: “We have said with certainty that the embargo will not be lifted by a Security Council resolution, but will corrode by itself.”


Was he ever right on that point. The Duelfer report is extremely informative in tracking down foreign agencies that violated the embargo and shipped sophisticated military equipment to Saddam. It quotes an Iraqi memo stating that the deputy general manager of the French company Sofema, a military component marketer, would be bringing to Baghdad a company catalog so that Iraqi officials could “discuss your needs with him.”


The principal suppliers were North Korea and Belarus. But here is a handy list of nations whose arms producers, scorning the U.N., trafficked with Saddam: Jordan, Red China, India, South Korea, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Cyprus, Egypt, Lebanon, Georgia, Poland, Romania, Taiwan, Italy and Turkey. Oh, yes, and there were two American citizens doing a little business with Baghdad. They were Shakir al-Khafaji and Samir Vincent.


So we have an odd coincidence. The coalition powers, led by America, believe that Saddam has weapons sufficient to repel America and to threaten other nations. Saddam thinks the very same thing. America acts on its assumption – it invades – and Saddam acts on the same assumption – he does nothing to abort war.


And a lot of countries whose merchants violated the U.N. embargo are angry with America for proceeding to war against a country whose threat against others could only have been realized by successful defiance of the U.N. embargo.


The New York Sun

© 2025 The New York Sun Company, LLC. All rights reserved.

Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. The material on this site is protected by copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used.

The New York Sun

Sign in or  Create a free account

or
By continuing you agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use