With Feuding Gulf Countries Uniting Against Iran, Is an Alliance With Israel in the Cards Next?

For more than two years, Israel has fought Tehran-affiliated enemies on seven fronts. Now it seems that the Islamic Republic of Iran is surrounded by at least as many foes as its nemesis. Gulf states are being targeted by Iranian drones and missiles. After a long period of attempted detente between these Sunni-majority countries and the mullahs, and after directing their hostility to the Jewish state, these Sunni Arabs are now on the same side as America and Israel. “The shared threat of missiles and drones is having a bandwagoning effect, where these countries are coming together — not necessarily because of a full ideological support for the United States or Israel, but out of necessity,” the executive director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Jonathan Schanzer, tells the Sun.The U.S. Central Command, he adds, is providing these countries with a lot of the intelligence and missile defense that they need to defend against some of these attacks. Behind the scenes, Israel too is aiding these countries.Is the Iran war going to catalyze new, previously unthinkable regional alliances?For now “we are at war,” the Israeli ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, tells the Sun. “But I think in the future, after we accomplish the mission, I think there will be an opening for advancing the Abraham Accords. I’m optimistic about it.” Much would depend on the Saudis. Before the October 7, 2023, massacre, Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman indicated Riyadh was on the verge of formalizing relations with Israel. Since then, he has toughened up on his demands, including insisting on a clear path toward a Palestinian state. “I’d love to see a moment of sobriety in which the Saudis recognize a friend from a foe,” the head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, Yossi Kuperwasser, tells the Sun. “The Saudis climbed high on a tree. We’ll see what regime emerges in Iran after the war. If it’s aligned with America and Israel, the Saudis will join it.”Until recently, the Saudis attempted to repair long fraught ties with Tehran, perhaps calculating that a weakened Islamic Republic would be a better neighbor than an unknown, possibly chaotic regime.The Saudis are denying a Washington Post report that it pressured President Trump to attack rather than to continue the talks. Yet, after Iran hit Saudi territory, including a direct attack on the American embassy at Riyadh, MbS is reportedly planning to send fighter jets to join the Israelis and Americans. Iran’s close allies, like Kuwait, were nevertheless attacked by it this week with missiles and drones. The United Arab Emirates, which for years has allowed its bank to launder Iranian proceeds from American sanction evasion, was hit by up to 175 Iranian missiles and 540 drones, more than any other Gulf state and second only to Israel. Another ally, Qatar, which has together with the Islamic Republic backed Hamas, took in 100 missiles and 40 drones so far. Doha downed two Iranian SU-24 bomber jets this week. Even Oman, which hosted talks between Washington and Tehran, and which for years had allowed Iran to use its territory for shipping sanctioned oil abroad, was attacked on Saturday. The Mullahs hoped, perhaps, that by attacking their neighbors and creating oil and gas shortages around the world, American-allied Gulf countries would pressure Mr. Trump to shorten the war. Then again, they might have acted less on a thought-out strategy than out of sheer panic. The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said he had apologized to the Qataris and Omanis for the strikes on their territories. “What happened in Oman was not our choice,” he said, blaming the launches on battlefield errors. “Our military units are now, in fact, independent and somehow isolated,” acting on “general instructions given to them in advance.”Either way, the results are in. After a months-long feud between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, the Saudis and Emirates are friends again. Gulf countries that for years could have agreed on almost nothing, are issuing joint condemnations or Iran. Can an alliance with Israel be far behind?“Things are trending in the right direction,” Mr. Schanzer says. “But the only way that the Gulf countries make a decision to move toward the Israelis is if the Islamic Republic is toppled and a new U.S.-led order in the region is established, with Israel at the forefront.”

With Feuding Gulf Countries Uniting Against Iran, Is an Alliance With Israel in the Cards Next?

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