AFC South Showdown Highlights Week 13

Injuries could affect the Colts’ chances of repeating as Super Bowl champions, and their division rivals, the Jacksonville Jaguars, hope to take advantage with a win over Indianapolis this Sunday. Also, in Philadelphia, two long-time NFC coaching comrades face off in a shootout of the West Coast offense variety.JAGUARS (8–3) at COLTS (9–2)Sunday, 1 p.m.Coming down the stretch in the fourth quarter against the New England Patriots on November 4, all seemed right with the Colts. The defending champs had a 7–0 record and a 20–10 lead. But so much in Indianapolis has gone wrong since the Patriots scored two unanswered touchdowns in the the fourth quarter. Star receiver Marvin Harrison had already been out for most of the previous month with a knee injury, and his return timetable is still in doubt. Reggie Wayne is one of the NFL’s best wideouts, but he can’t do it alone. Rookie Anthony Gonzalez, who the Colts were hoping would pick up some of the slack, has missed two of the last three games, and stellar defensive end Dwight Freeney was placed on injured reserve in mid-November.Peyton Manning’s team has won their last two games in different ways, including increased involvement from their tight ends. Ben Utecht caught his first touchdown pass in two years in a 31–13 victory over the Atlanta Falcons, and Dallas Clark is enjoying a career year. The Colts tried to fill Freeney’s roster spot with veteran pass-rusher Simeon Rice. It didn’t work out but Indy’s defense is still among the league’s best this season. Offensively, Joseph Addai and Kenton Keith form an outstanding running back tandem. The Colts have been putting together patchwork offensive lines, due to injuries to tackles Tony Ugoh and Ryan Diem. Head coach Tony Dungy is monitoring the possibility that he’ll get some of his injured players back this week.What is certain is that in the hyper-competitive AFC South, the Jacksonville Jaguars are right on Indy’s heels. The Colts and Jaguars last met on October 22, with Jacksonville on the wrong end of the 29–7 score. That game was the first of four in which quarterback David Garrard missed time due to a sprained ankle. Garrard’s team went 2–2 in his absence and hasn’t lost since his return two games ago. One reason is Garrard’s efficiency: He hasn’t thrown a single interception in 209 pass attempts this season.Still, Jacksonville’s offense revolves around its running game, with backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. The Colts famously gave up 375 rushing yards to Jacksonville in a December 10 loss last season, but their newly stout defense allowed only 117 in this year’s follow-up. If the Jaguars want to bring the division to a virtual tie, they’ll need to find a way to crack that code. Jacksonville’s passing attack may be efficient, but it’s hardly explosive.SEAHAWKS (7–4) at EAGLES (5–6)Sunday, 1 p.m.After 11 games in 2006, a 5–6 Eagles team found itself near the bottom of the NFC East, with starting quarterback Donovan McNabb lost to injury. But coach Andy Reid had an ace up his sleeve in veteran quarterback Jeff Garcia, who led the team to five straight wins and an improbable division title. The Eagles stand with the same record once again, and Dallas’s excellence rules out another NFC East crown, though another implosion by the Giants is never of the question. Regardless, Reid’s squad finds itself in yet another win-out-or-go-home scenario. McNabb has struggled with injuries again, and this year’s understudy is A.J. Feeley, who almost led the Eagles to a win over the Patriots last Sunday night.McNabb may return for this game, but the real concern in Philly must be running back Brian Westbrook, who leads the NFL with 1,459 combined rushing and receiving yards. Westbrook suffered a knee contusion against New England last week. Reid hopes his best player will be able to go against the Seahawks.Reid assisted current Seahawks head coach Mike Holmgren in Green Bay before he became the Eagles’ main man in 1999. Both men are purveyors of the West Coast offense, though Reid has implemented the more passheavy elements of that scheme. Holmgren took a more balanced attack to Seattle, especially with the emergence of running back Shaun Alexander. With Alexander’s effectiveness now diminishing, Holmgren has moved away from the even run-pass ratio. In Seattle’s last two games — wins over the Chicago Bears and St. Louis Rams — quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has thrown the ball 82 times versus 42 rushing attempts. Holmgren has said that he’ll continue this strategy, which could lead to the Seahawks passing more than the Eagles. Right now, Philadelphia’s 57.2 pass percentage is right in line with Seattle’s 58.2.If both teams do throw the ball all over the place, the Seahawks may have the advantage with their stellar pass rush. Defensive end Patrick Kerney has six quarterback sacks in his last two games, and Seattle’s near the top of the NFL in total sacks for the third straight season with 35. Philadelphia’s offensive line enjoyed a great performance against the Patriots, allowing only two sacks, but their season total of 34 allowed is also among the NFL’s highest numbers. The Eagles’ screen passing game could be the escape hatch from the aggressive Seahawks defense. Westbrook is the key.Mr. Farrar is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.

AFC South Showdown Highlights Week 13

AFC South Showdown Highlights Week 13

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