AFC Wild Card Is Up For Grabs

Two Sunday contests feature AFC teams fighting for postseason hope and playoff spots. Buffalo looks to upset the Browns and stay in the race, while the Steelers will try to establish their place in the elite by beating the underrated Jaguars.BILLS (7–6) at BROWNS (8–5)Sunday, 1 p.m.When college-at-heart coaches, such as Bobby Petrino, bail from NFL teams, such as the Atlanta Falcons, due to lost seasons and rosters in disarray, professional coaching lifers, such as Dick Jauron of the Buffalo Bills, must certainly snicker with derision. While Petrino was doing the “Woo pig sooey!” chant to “celebrate” phoning in his Atlanta resignation and taking the job at Arkansas on Tuesday, Jauron was still at work considering whether or not to put his 14th player of the season on injured reserve — safety George Wilson, who suffered two broken ribs against the Miami Dolphins last Sunday. Wilson scored a fumble-return touchdown in the win while observing a season-long tradition of necessary plays by players thriving under the radar.Rookie quarterback Trent Edwards has guided the Bills to a 5–1 record as a starter, and he’s connecting with deep threat receiver Lee Evans. When star running back Marshawn Lynch missed three games with a high ankle sprain, fellow first-year player Fred Jackson, out of Coe College (and by way of the Sioux City Bandits of the United Indoor Football League), posted the first 100-yard NFL performance by a Division III back in a decade. Jauron’s steady hand has Buffalo in position to contend for a wild card playoff spot with a win over the Browns.The Cleveland Browns come into this game with a dynamic passing offense and an improving rushing attack. The question all year has concerned the defense: The Browns have allowed 27.4 points a game, the most in the NFL. The 27.7 points a game the offense has scored leaves little margin for error, and because of that, Cleveland’s defense faces a formidable challenge this week. On the other side of the ball, quarterback Derek Anderson — a surprise story, not unlike Edwards — will zing the ball to his many targets. Running back Jamal Lewis has rushed for over 100 yards in two of his last three games, having topped that mark only once before this season. Cleveland is a game behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North, and Pittsburgh’s season sweep puts the division just about out of reach. But the Browns could be a threat in the playoffs if they find balance.JAGUARS (9–4) at STEELERS (9–4)Sunday, 1 p.m.The aforementioned Steelers, fresh from a 34–13 pasting against the Patriots, are trying to establish themselves as an A-level AFC contender. Their top defense took a major hit in that New England game, though: Defensive end Aaron Smith is lost for the season with a torn bicep. This affects a Pittsburgh line that will be under siege against the Jaguars and their monstrous two-headed running back combo, Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.The Steelers will face David Garrard, one of the league’s most efficient quarterbacks. Garrard has thrown only one interception in 274 passing attempts this season. The Jaguars bring a balanced attack that could spell trouble for any opponent.Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger would do well to focus on his running backs, both on the ground and in the air. According to the DVOA statistics from Football Outsiders (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which assigns specific value to each play in each game), only the Lions are worse when defending passes to backs than the Jaguars. Jacksonville has also lost defensive tackle Marcus Stroud to an ankle injury.The Steelers tried to get Willie Parker more involved in the passing game last week, and Najeh Davenport caught a 32-yard touchdown pass from Roethlisberger. If the Steelers want to throw deep, they may be limited by Santonio Holmes’s high ankle sprain, though Hines Ward is as reliable as ever. Jacksonville and Pittsburgh have each allowed 15 passing touchdowns, though the Jaguars have 16 interceptions to the Steelers’ eight. While Parker leads the league in rushing, the Steelers are a below-average team on the ground. A suspect offensive line is partly to blame.Special teams could be the deciding factor in a close contest. If that’s the case, Jacksonville has the edge. They’re ahead of Pittsburgh in team return yards gained and allowed, and Jones-Drew ranks sixth in the league with an average of 26.7 yards per kick return. If the Steelers aren’t careful, this game could slip away, and the Jaguars could continue to be the best team nobody’s talking about.Mr. Farrar is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.

AFC Wild Card Is Up For Grabs

AFC Wild Card Is Up For Grabs

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