Braves Relying on Makeshift Rotation

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Though it little resembles their blueprint for opening day, the Braves’ patchwork rotation has been one of their strengths in the 2008 season. What was supposed to be a veteran-heavy cadre of starters has instead turned into Tim Hudson, Tom Glavine, and three relatively unknown quantities: Jorge Campillo, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Jair Jurrjens. With John Smoltz out for the season, their contributions will become even more important going forward.

Reyes is the one Atlanta farmhand of the group, drafted in the second round of the 2003 amateur draft out of Riverside Polytechnic High School. Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein ranked him as the 10th-best talent under age 25 in the Atlanta organization. The left-hander primarily throws a fastball with sinking action while also mixing in a changeup, slider, and curve, which has helped him strike out 8.1 hitters per nine innings pitched.

This is an improvement over the 4.8 K/9 from 2007, and the improvement in his control — he’s now walking just 3.2 per nine, rather than last year’s awful 5.3 — has helped him progress. A drop in his home run rate has also helped with his early-season success — this can be attributed to the increase in his grounders. Though his 4.80 ERA does not seem impressive, a deeper look at his numbers shows a pitcher with loads of potential. Reyes’s QuikERA (a statistic that predicts future ERA more accurately than ERA due to the statistics that make it up) is 3.85.

The pieces that make up QERA — namely, strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates — are all positives for Reyes, so it doesn’t take a leap of faith to see him producing at that level. The thought is even easier to digest when you realize that Reyes has been productive outside of one start where he gave up seven earned runs in just five innings while giving up three homers. With just seven starts to his name in 2008, it’s easier for his overall line to be skewed by an appearance like that one. As he continues to adapt to major league hitters, we’ll see his actual ERA come closer to his QERA.

The Braves traded Edgar Renteria to the Detroit Tigers and received Jurrjens in return, and the latter has helped to justify the acquisition with a quality two months thus far. Goldstein ranked Jurrjens the sixth-best prospect in the Braves organization and the eighth-best talent under age 25. He earned this ranking despite not possessing one overpowering trait as a pitcher; instead, Jurrjens is a hurler who does plenty of little things correctly without too many issues.

He’s capable of striking out more than the league average because he has solid command with all of his pitches, and he’s also capable of inducing groundouts. This is big for Atlanta, who currently lead the major leagues in Defensive Efficiency, which measures the percentage of balls in play converted into outs. Jurrjens pitched admirably in 30 2/3 innings for the Tigers in 2007, but he had some issues. If his 3.8 K/9 in that brief trial had held, chances are he would have struggled in his second go-round in the majors. Fortunately for the Braves, Jurrjens started to miss more bats and has struck out 6.5 hitters per nine innings. This has helped him meet his potential as a mid-rotation starter.

Given his somewhat lofty walk rate of 3.9 per nine, Jurrjens’s 3.45 ERA is a bit over his head. QERA sees him closer to 4.75, meaning that by year-end we may see Reyes and Jurrjens switch places in the ERA department. As long as he keeps the ball on the ground and out of the stands — and he’s on pace to allow just 11 homers in 200 innings — the Braves’ defense will be able to make him look even better than he is.

Campillo is the greatest unknown quantity in the Braves’ rotation, thanks to his initial background as a player in Mexico and his subsequent time lost to injury. The 29-year-old was signed by the Braves for the second time following his release by the Seattle Mariners — Campillo was originally inked by Atlanta in 1996, before he was loaned to Mexico City and subsequently released. The Mariners signed him as an undrafted free agent, and he was lights-out for Triple-A Tacoma — 66.1 innings pitched, 2.71 ERA, 8.6 K/9, and an impressive 0.7 BB/9. Then Tommy John surgery derailed his 2006 campaign, making analysis of his performances thereafter difficult.

It takes time for a pitcher who has had elbow surgery to be declared healthy and back at the level of performance they had prior to the injury, but 2008 has proved that Campillo is once again able to harness his command and control. The Braves picked him up and tried him out in spring training, but his best pitch, the changeup, was flat and lifeless. He did not make the team by opening day. But after a single start at Triple-A — four punch-outs in 4 1/3 innings with no walks, runs, or homers, and a changeup full of life — the Braves called him up to help in their bullpen.

Thanks to a slew of injuries elsewhere on the staff, Campillo found himself in the rotation. Opponents have hit a paltry .221 AVG/.229 OBA/.382 SLG against Campillo as a starter, and he has struck out 27% of the batters he’s faced while walking just 1% of the them. Given his numbers in the minors and in Mexico City — a high-altitude, high-offense environment — it is not a stretch to consider him a good mid-rotation starter who might flourish. Given his ground ball tendencies and the Braves’ excellent defense, he’s in the kind of environment where it’s possible.

Part of the Braves’ sustained success has been the organization’s ability to anticipate or adapt to whatever misfortune may come. Thanks to Atlanta’s stocking of potential starting pitchers such as Jurrjens and Campillo this winter, in addition to the prospects (like Reyes) and veterans they already had on hand, they have managed successfully to navigate their way to a better record than a team with their injuries should be entitled to. Given the talent of these starters, the rest of 2008 looks promising for Atlanta as they fight for a playoff spot once again.

Mr. Normandin is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseballprospectus.com.


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