NFC Teams Seek To Emerge From Mediocrity
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While Philadelphia and Atlanta are assured of spots in the postseason, the rest of the NFC playoff picture features a scrum between 10 teams with five to seven wins. Each of these teams will try to emerge from the pack this weekend, and no game has more playoff implications than the matchup between the fading Rams and the resurgent Panthers.
ST. LOUIS ( 6-6 ) AT CAROLINA ( 5-7 )
On the surface, this is a simple pairing of two out of the many mediocre teams now vying for a playoff spot in the NFC. A deeper look at each team’s performance indicates that this game is a colossal mismatch in favor of Carolina.
According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings – which breaks down each play of the season and compares it with the NFL average based on situation and opponent – Carolina has been the 13th best team in the NFL this season. This is more impressive when you consider that 10 of the top 11 teams in the ratings hail from the AFC. Despite a losing record, Carolina has played better than all but two teams in its conference.
The Panthers are riding a four-game winning streak because they’ve improved in passing the ball and defending the pass. Quarterback Jake Delhomme is making better reads and committing fewer turnovers. Rookie wide receiver Keary Colbert has made a number of pressure catches, while Mushin Muhammad uses size, speed, and experience to get open one-on-one. The defense is led by Julius Peppers, NFC Defensive Player of the Month for November, who gives quarterbacks fits both as a rushing down lineman and as a cover man.
The Rams are getting all the lucky bounces that the Panthers aren’t, and their 6-6 record is the product of geography instead of performance. St. Louis is 5-0 against their feeble rivals in the NFC West, but 1-6 against the rest of the NFL. DVOA rates both their defense and special teams as the worst in the NFL.
The legendary Rams offense, which had been keeping the team afloat, is now struggling as well. The Rams have scored fewer than 20 points in four straight games, and an injury to Marc Bulger means the quarterback duties fall to 40-year-old Chris Chandler.
Running backs Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson are both hobbled by bruised knees. The offensive line is in disarray, and the benching of right tackle Grant Williams means that backup lineman Blaine Saipaia, in only his second NFL start, will have to line up against Peppers.
Anything can happen in the NFL, and often it does, but expect both teams to be 6-7 at day’s end.
TAMPA BAY ( 5-7 ) AT SAN DIEGO ( 9-3 )
Tampa owns the ignoble distinction of being that one non-division opponent beaten by St. Louis. The loss was just one game in a pattern that has plagued the Bucs since they won the Super Bowl two years ago, mixing dominant wins with close losses. When it seems time to give up on the Bucs’ season, they win big; when it seems that they have finally turned things around, they lose.
Tampa is back on an upswing after last week’s 27-0 humiliation of 9-3 Atlanta, so beating another 9-3 team is certainly not out of the question. Unfortunately for Tampa, San Diego is a much better team than Atlanta, and not one that the Buccaneers match up with very well.
In general, Tampa’s strong defense should slow down Drew Brees and the Chargers’ passing attack. But stopping San Diego means stopping Antonio Gates, and the Buccaneers do not have a particularly strong record against tight ends. Though they kept Atlanta’s Alge Crumpler to a single catch last week, he totaled 118 yards in their first meeting; Kansas City’s Tony Gonzalez rang up 123 yards against the Bucs. San Diego’s other star, running back LaDainian Tomlinson, seems to be coming around from early groin injuries, and Tampa’s run defense is only average.
Tampa has been much better on the offensive side of the ball since Brian Griese took over as quarterback eight weeks ago, but Griese faces a surprising San Diego defense that has been as good as the offense. When Denver shut down the Chargers’ offense last week, the defense rose to the occasion and won the game by picking off Jake Plummer four times.
San Diego also has a strong pass rush that should be able to get to the oft-sacked Griese. But they also have some injuries in the secondary, and if the Chargers try blitzing, Griese may find some openings he can exploit.
CHICAGO ( 5-7 ) AT JACKSONVILLE ( 6-6 )
When they began the season with three straight wins, it looked like the Jaguars would be 2004’s out-of-nowhere success story. Now, with three straight losses, they are on the verge of falling out of the playoff picture.
The AFC has been so strong this season that Jacksonville ranks behind 10 other AFC teams in total performance as measured by DVOA, despite fielding an average offense and average defense.
But they are still far ahead of the Bears: DVOA ranks Chicago as the worst of the six 5-7 teams still in the NFC playoff race. The reason is very clear: Their offense has been the league’s worst, below even the wretched Miami Dolphins.
But now the Bears have hope. Last week’s 213-yard, three touchdown performance by Chad Hutchinson has Chicago fans thinking they may finally have found a quarterback to replace Rex Grossman, who went down in Week 3. The excitement should be tempered by the fact that Hutchinson’s big game came against the porous Minnesota secondary; after adjusting for that fact, his day was merely average.
Nonetheless, Chicago’s previous two passers, Jonathan Quinn and Craig Krenzel, were the two least valuable quarterbacks of 2004, and an average passing game is all the Bears need to win a field position battle with their top-10 defense and special teams.
Which leaves this question: Who is the real Chad Hutchinson? Is he a league-average quarterback who can manage the game and let the Bears’ defense win for him? Or was last week an aberration, and the real Hutchinson is the quarterback waived by Dallas after barely completing half his passes in 2002?
Jacksonville will try to bring out the latter Hutchinson with a heavy pass rush from lineman Marcus Stroud and linebacker Mike Peterson. Don’t be fooled by Jacksonville’s low sack total of 24, the result of a schedule filled with strong offensive lines; adjust for opponent, and Jacksonville ranks fifth in the NFL in sacks per pass play. Chicago, meanwhile, has allowed the most sacks in the league.
Jacksonville quarterback Byron Leftwich has pulled victory from the jaws of defeat with numerous late game comebacks this season. But last week Pittsburgh responded to Leftwich’s fourth-quarter drive with a last minute, game-winning drive of their own. Now Leftwich must engineer a different kind of fourth-quarter comeback – one where Jacksonville rebounds to make the playoffs.
Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.