‘The Soft Landing That Many of Us Dreamed of’: Inflation in September Rises at Near Pre-Pandemic Levels

WASHINGTON — As a presidential race profoundly shaped by Americans’ frustration with high prices nears its end, the government said Thursday that an inflation gauge closely watched by the Federal Reserve has dropped to near pre-pandemic levels.The Commerce Department reported that prices rose just 2.1 percent in September from a year earlier, down from a 2.3 percent rise in August. That is barely above the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target and in line with readings in 2018, well before prices began surging after the pandemic recession.Yet some signs of inflation pressures abided. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core prices rose 2.7 percent in September from a year earlier for the third straight month. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.3 percent from August to September, up from 0.2 percent from July to August. The increase in the core rate is higher than the Fed would prefer.Still, for the past six months, core inflation has declined to a 2.3 percent annual rate, down from 2.5 percent in August. And economists still expect the Fed to cut its key rate by a quarter-point when it meets next week.“It’s essentially the soft landing that many of us dreamed of,” said the chief economist at the tax and accounting firm EY, Gregory Daco, referring to a scenario in which high interest rates manage to tame inflation without causing a recession. “You really have the best of both worlds,” he added, “with consumer spending growth remaining resilient and inflation moving within striking distance of the Fed’s 2 percent target.”A separate measure of worker pay that the government issued Thursday — the employment cost index — showed that wages and benefits grew just 0.8 percent in the July-September quarter, the slowest such pace in three years. Measured from the same quarter a year earlier, workers’ paychecks, excluding government employees, rose 3.8 percent, a pace consistent with the Fed’s inflation target, Mr. Daco said.Though faster wage growth provides a boost for working Americans, it can also fuel inflation if companies pass on their higher labor costs to consumers by raising prices.Taken as a whole, the latest signs of a sustained cooling of inflation arrive five days before an election in which many voters have soured on the economy, mostly because average prices remain nearly 20 percent higher than they were four years ago. President Trump has largely blamed the Biden-Harris administration’s energy policies and promised that inflation would “ vanish completely ” if he is elected. Vice President Harris has promised to ban price gouging for groceries and to reduce child care and health care costs.Thursday’s report also showed that Americans remain confident enough in their finances to keep shopping: Spending jumped 0.5 percent between August and September, which helped the economy expand at a healthy clip in the July-September quarter.Incomes rose more slowly last month, the government said, rising just 0.3 percent. In response, Americans cut back on their savings, leaving the savings rate at 4.6 percent, down from 4.8 percent the previous month.On a monthly basis, prices inched up 0.2 percent from August to September, up slightly from a 0.1 percent increase from July to August.Inflation peaked at 7.1 percent in June 2022 after the economy had accelerated out of the pandemic recession at a time of severe shortages of parts and labor, according to the gauge released Thursday, called the personal consumption expenditures price index. Inflation has steadily cooled over the past two years after supply chains recovered from the pandemic disruptions and the Fed boosted its key interest rate to a four-decade high, depressing home sales and auto purchases.The Fed tends to favor the inflation gauge that the government issued Thursday — the personal consumption expenditures price index — over the better-known consumer price index. The PCE index tries to account for changes in how people shop when inflation jumps. It can capture, for example, when consumers switch from pricier national brands to cheaper store brands.In general, the PCE index tends to show a lower inflation rate than CPI. In part, that’s because rents, which have been high, carry double the weight in the CPI that they do in the index released Friday.

‘The Soft Landing That Many of Us Dreamed of’: Inflation in September Rises at Near Pre-Pandemic Levels

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