Welcome to Washington: Pro-Israel Groups Bet Big on Rural Kentucky

For the foreseeable future, much will be written about President Trump’s Make America Great Again movement and its position on Israel. The fate of Congressman Thomas Massie — a libertarian Israel critic who has clashed with the president over the course of the last year — will disclose a good deal about how deep are the MAGA movement’s isolationist, anti-war currents. Welcome to Washington, where Mr. Massie is locked in the fiercest battle of his political life. The Republican primary race to represent Kentucky’s fourth congressional district is now the most expensive primary campaign in American history. By the time polls close on Tuesday night, it is estimated that more than $32 million will have been spent by both sides. Mr. Massie is facing off against a Navy SEAL and farmer, Ed Gallrein, who is endorsed by the president. Mr. Gallrein has declined to debate Mr. Massie and has enjoyed a great deal of support from outside spending groups, including those funded by individuals who are strong supporters of Israel. In total, more than $8 million has been spent by pro-Israel groups and individuals to oust Mr. Massie from his seat in Congress. Mr. Massie’s battle with the president, though, does not focus exclusively on Israel. Rather, the congressman’s public breaks with Mr. Trump on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the Epstein files, and the president’s military incursions have intensified that bitterness. Mr. Trump first came after Mr. Massie in 2020 when the Kentucky representative demanded a roll call vote on the $2 trillion pandemic relief bill — the Cares Act — authored primarily by Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress at the time. “Mr. Speaker, I came here to make sure our republic doesn’t die by unanimous consent in an empty chamber, and I request a recorded vote,” Mr. Massie said to a mostly empty House floor. Shortly before Mr. Massie made his request — a request which was swiftly rebuffed — Mr. Trump called for the congressman to be booted from the party. The president never endorsed a primary candidate to run against Mr. Massie that year, though it was the beginning of an acrimonious relationship. The ads that have been running in Kentucky’s fourth district have focused mostly on Mr. Massie’s public breaks with Mr. Trump. Mr. Massie opposed the big, beautiful bill because of projections that showed a widening budget deficit. Mr. Massie was the lead Republican on the bill to force a disclosure of the Epstein files.The congressman has also consistently opposed Mr. Trump’s military operations abroad, including the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities last summer, the capture of President Maduro, and the ongoing conflict with Iran. The president’s disdain for Mr. Massie is personal, to be sure. Having countless articles written about a straying GOP congressman appears to have gotten under Mr. Trump’s skin. Even the slightest offense has a tendency to set the president off, whether it be about foreign policy, mid-decade redistricting, or the lack of a health care policy plan. Mr. Trump has gone so far as to criticize Mr. Massie for marrying his current wife too quickly after his first wife, Rhonda Massie, died in 2024. While the fight in northeastern Kentucky may be a personal one for Mr. Trump, the results will still mark an important data point for the MAGA movement and its future relationship with Israel. Tucker Carlson’s constant criticism of the Jewish state has captured the attention of online conservative diehards. Megyn Kelly has followed her former colleague’s lead. Candace Owens has fallen down a rabbit hole of antisemitic conspiracy theories. Still, Mr. Trump’s actual voters seem to have little care for those antics. According to one recent poll, Mr. Trump’s MAGA base is on Israel’s side. That survey shows that a majority — 51 percent — believe that Israel is America’s most important ally. Only 38 percent say the same of the United Kingdom, and 16 percent say it of the European Union.On the Iran war issue, MAGA voters are again strongly in Mr. Trump’s camp. According to Statista, support for the Iran conflict has roughly stayed the same since mid-March, when 78 percent supported the war and only ten percent disapproved. Now, 15 percent disapprove of the war while 77 percent maintain their support. Pro-Israel groups are putting their chips in on this race, but Mr. Massie has kept pace with an impressive fundraising haul. Messrs. Massie and Gallrein are essentially at a draw in terms of raising money and in ad spending. The president’s dominance over the GOP is not in doubt. The real question is whether anti-Israel sentiment really has purchase in the current GOP.

Welcome to Washington: Pro-Israel Groups Bet Big on Rural Kentucky

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