Welcome to Washington: Upcoming Midterm Cycle Will Be the Ugliest, for Both Parties, Since the Tea Party Wave

In the coming weeks, voters will head to the polls in several states to choose their nominees for federal offices this year. While many are expecting the Democrats to at least take the House in November, there is a more important shift happening in both parties — a rupture that could reshape Democratic and Republican leadership for years. Welcome to Washington, where the first primary ballots of the 2026 elections will be cast this month. On Tuesday, Texans of both parties will choose their respective nominees for the United States Senate, members of the House will either fend off or fall to primary challengers, and political observers will get real data about each party’s voter base headed into the midterms. The Texas primaries have been especially vicious, and while many of the tension points may seem localized, the broader struggles within each party are illustrated well by these contests. Arguably the most important race in the state — for the Senate — has devolved into bitter personal battles. The incumbent, Senator John Cornyn, has relentlessly attacked his main primary opponent, Texas’s attorney general, Ken Paxton, as a corrupt philanderer who may hand Democrats the seat in November. Mr. Paxton, in turn, paints Mr. Cornyn as a citizen of the Senate more than a citizen of Texas, arguing that he is out of step with both the combative nature of modern Republican politics and too willing to work with Democrats. Mr. Cornyn is now seeking his fifth term. If one sees any anti-Cornyn ads, one will see Texas’s senior senator in still photos with Democrats like the former secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, with whom Mr. Cornyn worked for six years in the Senate. One pro-Paxton ad went so far as to feature an AI-generated video of Mr. Cornyn square dancing with Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, whose quotes praising Mr. Cornyn as a “partner” are played as a voiceover in the video.If Mr. Cornyn does fall by the wayside — either on Tuesday or during the runoff in May — it would arguably be the greatest takedown of a leading Senate Republican since Senator Richard Lugar or Senator Bob Bennett, who lost their GOP primaries in 2012 and 2010, respectively. Both Lugar and Bennett were defeated by Tea Party-backed challengers who were supported by an enraged Republican base. Bennett’s defeat is maybe the most humiliating retirement in modern electoral history, given that the Utah Republican Party did not even allow him to run in the 2010 primary. Mr. Cornyn isn’t the only incumbent — both in Texas and around the country — staring down a potential defeat, however. Congressman Dan Crenshaw, a Navy SEAL, is facing a more conservative state representative who is backed by Senator Ted Cruz.Congressman Tony Gonzales — who allegedly demanded a “sexy” photograph from an aide who later committed suicide — was on the ropes long before the scandal came to light last month. Based on current polling, he is trailing his primary opponent. While Texas is illustrative of Republicans’ struggle, Illinois will be the mirror of that for the Democrats. On March 17, voters will choose their nominees in that deep-blue state. As in Texas, the Senate race is attracting the most attention and disclosing the most about the future of the state’s dominant party. Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton is locked in a tight race with Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi for the Democratic Senate nomination, and she has made clear that this race is about a lawmaker’s ability to fight. “I would not give my vote to fund ICE,” Ms. Stratton said at a recent primary debate, embracing the abolition of ICE as one of her key promises. Also in Illinois, House Democrats could see a number of leftward lurches. A retirement has left open a deep-blue House seat where a pro-Israel Democratic mayor, a state senator backed by affiliates of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, and an anti-Israel social media influencer are competing. A Chicago Democratic congressman abandoned his re-election campaign to hand his top aide the party’s nomination, leading to what will be an ugly fight in November between his chosen heir and a more left-wing candidate. Though Texas and Illinois are parallels for each party this month, through the spring and summer, there will be countless other battles. In the latter years of the Tea Party wave — in 2012 and 2014 — several prominent GOP lawmakers were defeated, including Senators Lugar and Bennett, as well as the House majority leader, Eric Cantor. Now, dozens of other top members of Congress are set to either face real competition, or be succeeded by those even farther into their party’s respective ideological corners. This kind of ugliness is just the beginning of the intraparty drama which will consume both Democrats and Republicans for the next six months. What is clear — despite the different dynamics within each state and within each party — is that voters are primed to throw more lawmakers out of office than at any point in the last 16 years.

Welcome to Washington: Upcoming Midterm Cycle Will Be the Ugliest, for Both Parties, Since the Tea Party Wave

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