Will the Houthis Join Iran’s Disruption of Energy Markets?

Nearly a month after the launch of Epic Fury, a Tehran ally, the Houthis, entered the fray this weekend with a missile salvo aimed at Israel. The Yemeni terror group, though, can potentially inflict much more pain on Iran’s foes if it so chooses. Since the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps started effectively shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has been bypassing that narrow strait by exporting oil through pipelines to the Red Sea. Such a solution to the crisis, though, could be blunted if the Houthis resume their threat against Red Sea shipping. President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday, citing unidentified administration officials. The report calmed stock and energy markets. In the long run, though, allowing Iran a veto power over traffic where 20 percent of the world’s oil travels could further disrupt global supplies. Until this week, the Houthis declined to attack on behalf of the Islamic Republic. On Saturday, though, the terror group launched at southern Israel two ballistic missiles and a drone, which were successfully intercepted. The launch, a first since last October’s declaration of a cease-fire in Gaza, is widely seen as a symbolic gesture of solidarity with Iran.Closing Bab al-Mandeb, the narrow passage at the southern tip of the Red Sea, in contrast, could deal a painful hit to already nervous global oil markets. The Houthis effectively closed Red Sea traffic throughout the Gaza war. Following American and Israeli attacks, the Yemeni group agreed to a May, 2025, cease-fire agreement that entailed ending threats to Red Sea shipping. Now the Houthis are again closely monitoring “enemy movements” in the Red Sea and are on full alert, their naval commander, Ali al-Qadri said Monday. The group’s chief spokesman, Yahya Saree, threatened attacks against America or Israel if they use the Red Sea for military purposes. Such threats aside, “I don’t think the Houthis are currently eager to shut down Bab al-Mandeb,” a Yemen scholar at Israel’s Regional Thinking Forum, Inbal Nissim-Louvton, tells the Sun. “They’d use that card very cautiously. They don’t want to draw American and Israeli fire at this time.”The Houthis could close Bab Al-Mandeb, though, if America beefs up forces in the Horn of Africa, or in reaction to additional Israeli presence in Somaliland, across the Red Sea from the Houthis, Ms. Nissim-Louvton says. Since the Islamic Republic imposed a virtual closure of the Hormuz Strait, the Saudis have been using a pipeline to transfer crude from its eastern province to the Red Sea Yanbu port. That east-west pipeline allows Riyadh to export 7 million oil barrels a day. If the Houthis shut down Bab al-Mandeb, though, exports to Asia, which consumes nearly 60 percent of Saudi oil, could be disrupted, leading to global chaos. Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, the Houthis attacked Israel with Iranian-supplied ballistic missiles and drones. Under the pretext of blocking Israeli shipping, the Houthis also struck ships at Bab al-Mandeb. These attacks almost completely ended all shipping though the Red Sea. Israel and America pummeled Houthi positions and killed several of the group’s top commanders, forcing a cease-fire and reopening of the Red Sea for traffic. Shortly after the launch on February 28 of Epic Fury, the Islamic Republic’s Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, fired rockets at northern Israel. The Houthis, which are more independent of Tehran than the Lebanese terror group, sat on the fence until Saturday. The ability of the Islamic Republic and the Houthis to disrupt energy markets poses a significant threat to the region and the world, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said Monday. “After the war, we need to bypass this by building pipelines from Saudi Arabia to the Mediterranean,” he said, adding that he had spoken about such a project with Arab officials.During a recent visit to Israel, Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlighted an American-backed blueprint known as the India Mideast Europe Corridor, which would bypass the Hormuz Strait and the Red Sea. The plan creates a direct line to Europe from India through Saudi Arabia and Israel. Ankara and Damascus, meanwhile, are lobbying for an alternative route to Europe — through Syria and Turkey. As yet, though, such solutions remain on planning boards. The Islamic Republic’s closure of the vital Hormuz Strait and the Houthis’ threat to similarly disrupt Red Sea traffic, in contrast, are real. They are a potent weapon in an asymmetrical war.

Will the Houthis Join Iran’s Disruption of Energy Markets?

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