Be Wary of Yesterday’s Heroes

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The New York Sun

Some of Wall Street’s biggest sucker traps are often yesterday’s heroes. They’re the once glamorous companies that dazzled investors in their heyday, but are no longer what they used to be. Still, their famous names and recollections of their Samson-like feats in the marketplace somehow manage to entice the impressionable bargain hunter. So periodically these stocks stage nifty rebounds as investors dream of a return to their past growth, only to later dive when it becomes apparent that, as Tom Wolfe put it, you can’t go home again.


A couple of prime examples of yesterday’s heroes and today’s risks – each of which has collapsed from its previous high – are Priceline.com ($22.67), a darling of the Internet craze of the ’90s, and Eastman Kodak ($27.55), one of the sizzling “nifty 50” growth stocks of the ’60s.


Despite their fall from grace, both stocks still have their boosters, but two analysts who monitor the companies for mutual fund industry tracker Morningstar think the adherents are chasing rainbows. They think both former stars are overpriced and face significant problems, and recommend that investors be wary.


It’s anyone’s guess whether the TV pitchman for Priceline, William Shatner of “Star Trek,” still holds a stake in the online discounter of airfares and hotel rooms. But if he does, Morningstar analyst John Owens thinks TV’s Captain Kirk faces as many difficulties with Priceline as he did aboard the starship Enterprise.


For starters, Mr. Owens argues that Priceline lacks the scale and resources to keep up with its larger competitors, which are aggressively pursuing market share, as well as with its key suppliers, which are seeking growth in direct bookings. With $2 billion in gross travel bookings in 2004, Priceline pales in size compared to IAC/Interactive, Cendant, and Travelocity.


Scale, the analyst points out, is important to sustaining profitability in the travel industry, as these competitors can spread more of their fixed costs over a larger revenue base and can devote more resources to growing market share. In addition, he notes, new competition is also springing up from “metasearch” travel sites, which provide a wider range of deals and allow for direct bookings, including Yahoo’s Fairchase and Sidestep.


Mr. Owens observes that Priceline is heavily dependent on its suppliers for its inventory. For example, its five largest airline suppliers account for more than 75% of tickets sold, while its five biggest hotels represent half of room nights sold. A loss of inventory from these suppliers, said Mr. Owens, would be very damaging to Priceline’s business.


As for Kodak, Morningstar analyst Mark Lanyon thinks its future hinges on its ability to transform an aging film business into a viable digital format. But he likens this to a high-wire act that involves many risks, including reduced profitability and cannibalization of traditional revenues.


Kodak’s digital film and imaging segment (70% of sales), which encompasses traditional photo items, as well as new digital products, is the key to this turnaround. Revenue from the company’s legacy film products has eroded 10% annually since 2000 as customers trade up to digital imaging, and this pace is expected to continue. Kodak hopes to stop the bleeding by charging into digital cameras, imaging, and consumables. Management believes the growth of the digital market will compensate for the eroding film franchise, but it’s worth noting this will make sales for the group roughly flat through 2007 as the product portfolio moves to a digital format.


In addition, several obstacles temper Mr. Lanyon’s enthusiasm for the new digital Kodak. Notably, Kodak faces entrenched competitors, including Hewlett-Packard and Canon, in cameras and consumables. The analyst notes that even if Kodak wins the digital market, profitability will suffer. In brief, slim margins typical of consumer electronics have compressed gross margins from 46% to 32% since 1998, and profits should head further south as competitors add capacity.


Mr. Lanyon notes that restructuring stories make him pause. “An overhaul of this magnitude makes us especially concerned about execution risk,” he said. “And even if Kodak meets its operating goals, it will be on a path of sluggish growth and diminished profitability.”


At some point, even the stocks of problem-ridden glamour companies, if they’re low enough, become attractive. In the case of Priceline and Kodak, the Morningstar analysts believe that level is $12 and $18, respectively, substantially below their current prices. In other words, as one Morningstar analyst put it to me: “Sell, not buy!”


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