Home Sales Unexpectedly Climb 1% in March

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The New York Sun

Sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly rose in March to the third fastest pace ever in America as low interest rates and job gains encouraged buyers. Prices surged to a record.


Resales of houses, townhouses, condominiums, and co-ops increased 1% last month to an annual rate of 6.89 million units from 6.82 million in February, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday at Washington. The median forecast called for no change from a previously reported 6.79 million.


Buyers weren’t deterred by rising mortgage rates or higher costs for gasoline. The average 30-year mortgage rate didn’t breach 6% until the end of the month, which is still below the two decade average of more than 8%. The median price rose 3.2% to $195,000 from $189,000 in February.


“The boom in the housing market hasn’t ended, because interest rates aren’t rising enough,” said Timothy Rogers, chief economist at Briefing.com in Boston, who had forecast 6.9 million. “We’ll see rates into the mid- to upper sixes before we see housing sales really come down.”


Sales rose in all regions except the Northeast, and the soaring price tag did little to deter buyers. The March price is up 11.4% from a year before, the biggest 12-month gain since December 1980. America has added jobs each month for almost two years, supporting demand for housing.


“With wages rising, overall compensation rising, the job situation quite steady and maybe improving, the demand for housing is going to stay there,” said Roger Kubarych, a senior adviser at HVB America and a former economist at the Fed.


The median home price rose 5.9% to $289,000 from the previous month in the West; 3.2% to $159,000 in the Midwest; and 3.9% to $169,000 in the South, the realtors association said. Median home prices fell 3.2% to $242,000 from February in the Northeast.


“There are some pockets where it is definitely a bubble,” said Mr. Kubarych. “Places like Nevada will see falls in prices because the prices get out of line with incomes.”


A more current measure of housing demand, sales of new houses, may show some cooling in the market. Purchases may have declined in March to an annual rate of 1.19 million homes from 1.23 million in February, according to the median forecast before today’s report from the Commerce Department.


Those results are tabulated when sales contracts are signed. By contrast, existing-home sales are tabulated at closing, often a month or two after the contract.


The numbers drove up homebuilders’ stocks. Shares of Toll Brothers, a builder of luxury homes, rose as much as 4.2% on the New York Stock Exchange yesterday and Hovnanian Enterprises rose as much as 4.8%. An 18% drop in March housing starts reported last week by the Commerce Department had battered prices.


Yesterday’s report follows an assessment made last week by the Federal Reserve in its beige book survey of the national economy that “residential real estate markets remained strong across most of the country.” Home sales help support other types of spending, such as demand for appliances and furniture.


The fastest pace on record is 7.02 million, set in June.


Resales of single-family homes rose 1.2% to an annual pace of 6.04 million in March. Sales of condos and co-ops fell 0.1% to an 845,000 annual pace.


The supply of homes available for sale, another gauge of housing demand, fell to four months’ worth in March from 4.1 months’ worth the previous month.


The surge in housing prices has caught the attention of Fed policy makers, who meet again May 3, next week, to consider an eighth consecutive increase in the target rate for overnight loans between banks. Yesterday’s report reinforces expectations of future increases. Fed Governor Donald Kohn said April 22 that the level of real estate prices was “lofty” and gains may slow as interest rates rise and wage growth cools. “Such a distortion would most likely unwind through a slow erosion of real house prices, rather than a sudden crash,” Mr. Kohn said in a speech at Annandale-on-Hudson, N.Y.


Low interest rates have “been a major force driving the phenomenal runup in residential real estate prices over the past few years,” Mr. Kohn also said.


The forecast among investors is for the Federal Open Market Committee to increase the rate to 3% from 2.75%.


“That housing hasn’t tanked provides every good reason to hike rates next week,” said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa.


The 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.04% at the end of March from 5.57% in mid-February, according to data from Freddie Mac, the no. 2 supplier of mortgage financing after Fannie Mae.


Mortgage rates last month rose amid concern that accelerating inflation would lead the FOMC to step up its pace of increases in borrowing costs. The 30-year rate fell to 5.8% last week, amid concern about a slowdown in economic growth.


“As long as the economic expansion is not truly really faltering, and I don’t really think that it is, then we’ll be seeing ongoing growth in jobs and income,” said David Seiders, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, in an interview.


The New York Sun

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