It’s the Economy, Turkey, as Erdogan Is in Danger of Losing Power in Sunday’s Election

The winner of Turkey’s election Sunday will have little time to celebrate, what with the country in a deep economic crisis and a fix anything but easy to find. A likely bailout from the International Monetary Fund may force Ankara to improve relations with America and the West, and to reverse some of President Erdogan’s ways. The economy is front and center in the neck-and-neck competition between Mr. Erdogan and his main competitor, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. An inflation rate hovering just below 50 percent and growing public dissatisfaction with the president’s steering of the economy are the top reasons that Mr. Kilicdaroglu is as competitive as he is. Both candidates are polling just below 50 percent, as Mr. Kilicdaroglu seems to be leading by a hair. The 74-year-old contender could benefit from Thursday’s withdrawal of an opposition candidate, Muharrem Ince. Another candidate, Sinan Ogan, canceled an event on Friday, and may withdraw as well, helping Mr. Kilicdaroglu shore up the anti-Erdogan votes. If no candidate gets 50 percent of the votes on Sunday, a runoff election is scheduled for May 28. Mr. Kilicdaroglu is hoping to win at least 55 percent to avoid shenanigans in the vote count. He could be helped by Mr. Erdogan’s disappearance from the campaign trail last week with what was described as a stomach ailment.Rumors about health issues, from epilepsy to cancer, have been haunting the president. A clampdown on press freedoms exacerbates the rumor mill, as the public is increasingly skeptical of the officially sanctioned news.A law banning insulting the Turkish leader landed a former Kurdish presidential candidate, Selahattin Demirtas, in prison back in 2016. This week Mr. Demirtas announced his support of Mr. Kilicdaroglu, in what could shore up the Kurdish vote. Mr. Erdogan’s one-man ruling style, which in the past may have enamored him to core supporters, may now prove detrimental. Specifically, his hands-on control of the economy is eroding support even among diehard fans. Also not helping is his unorthodox theory that lending rates must remain low even in face of high inflation, which reached 85 percent last year. Last winter’s earthquake and the large fatality numbers are also hurting Mr. Erdogan, denting his can-do image. Building codes enacted after past earthquakes were ignored by contractors, including many of the president’s cronies.On Thursday a former confidant of Mr. Erdogan, Ali Yesildag, posted a final installment of web-based videos alleging that the president and his son, Bilal, have siphoned off public funds for personal gain. In it, Mr. Yesildag claims that the Erdogans control businesses that receive lucrative government contracts, including for a new Istanbul airport. Persistent inflation and too much personal control over the economy, coupled with allegations of corruption, could doom Mr. Erdogan. Yet, even if Mr. Kilicdaroglu manages to win Sunday or two weeks later, Turkey will need outside help, which in turn may force a change in foreign policy. “If he wins, Kilicdaroglu will need a bailout package from the IMF,” a Turkey watcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Sinan Ciddi, tells the Sun. “And it won’t be small. It could reach an upward of $200 billion, the largest IMF bailout in history.” To secure that, policy changes would be necessary.According to Mr. Ciddi, such changes may include a quick approval of Sweden’s request to join NATO, which Mr. Erdogan has blocked in the hope of getting concessions from America. A new approach to the S-400 air defenses may also be worked out with Washington. Mr. Erdogan’s purchase of the Russian system led President Trump to boot Turkey out of the multinational project responsible for the development of the world’s most advanced fighter jet, the F-35.Tightened relations with Russia, as well as Ankara’s even-handed policy on Ukraine, have irked America and Europe. So did Turkey’s approach to Cyprus and Greece. A Kilicdaroglu government seems open to reversing Mr. Erdogan’s hard line.Even more crucially, a Turkish return to a pluralistic democracy, and reversal of the Islamist authoritarianism of Mr. Erdogan, would be cheered at Washington and European capitals. Mr. Kilicdaroglu vows to return to the parliamentary system of government that has ruled Turkey since the day of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Mr. Erdogan changed the constitution in 2018 to concentrate many powers in the hands of the president by conducting a referendum — the results of which were widely contested.Securing loans and attracting Western investors seem to guide Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s policy ideas. Yet, despite a deteriorating economy, questions over Mr. Erdogan’s health, and anger over his handling of the earthquake, an opposition victory is far from guaranteed. The charismatic Islamist president has diehard fans, and he also controls the courts, most of the press, and other levers of government, which could help in securing victory if the vote is close. As a new global cold war is heating up, America needs a pro-Western, democratic Turkey with a healthy economy, which is why many in Washington quietly hope Mr. Erdogan loses Sunday and, just as crucial, that he concedes his loss.

It’s the Economy, Turkey, as Erdogan Is in Danger of Losing Power in Sunday’s Election

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