Manchin Makes an Appearance in Iowa as Americans Beg for a Third Option

As the 2024 presidential election barrels toward becoming a rematch of the 2020 race, Americans are begging for another option, according to a new study. Senator Manchin of West Virginia appears to have taken notice.The 2022 American National Election Studies Pilot Study focusing on approval ratings found that Americans dislike both of their likely major party options heading into 2022.The survey, measuring voter intentions ahead of 2024, found that 41 percent of registered voters preferred President Biden, 37 percent preferred President Trump, and a full 18 percent of voters simply preferred “someone else.”Another measure, the feeling thermometer, can help tease out who the “someone else” voters would choose if forced to pick between Messrs. Biden and Trump. This measure asked respondents whether they would prefer Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump, or felt neutral in the choice.According to the survey, 51 percent of respondents preferred Mr. Biden while 47 percent preferred Mr. Trump. Two percent of voters reported feeling neutral on the issue.While these results might favor Mr. Biden, there is a catch: Among those 18 percent of voters who reported preferring “someone else,” a plurality, 42 percent, considered themselves “conservative.”Although an additional 40 percent said they considered themselves either “moderate,” or “liberal,” these results suggest that there is an modest opening for a candidate to the right of Mr. Biden but without the baggage of Mr. Trump.A political scientist, Alan Abramowitz, wrote on the ANES survey for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, saying, “Most Americans do not want to see a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in 2024.”“Given the unpopularity of both Biden and Trump, there would appear to be an opening for a third party or independent candidate in 2024 who would appeal to the substantial minority of voters,” Mr. Abramowitz said.He went on to conclude that whether any strong third party or independent candidates emerge and “which major party candidate’s support they cut into, may well decide the outcome of the presidential election.”On Wednesday, Mr. Manchin stopped over in Iowa during his travels between West Virginia and Washington, D.C., to tell a group of businessmen and community leaders that he’s “fiscally responsible and socially compassionate,” conjuring images of President Bush’s “compassionate conservatism.”His visit to Iowa comes as he’s facing tough prospects in any potential Senate re-election campaign in West Virginia. Governor Justice entered the race earlier this month, quickly becoming an early favorite.Given a recent promise from Mr. Manchin to “win any race I enter,” some have speculated that he may sit out the West Virginia Senate race. His relationship with the anti-partisan group No Labels has further fueled this speculation.Mr. Manchin has repeatedly promised that he would not enter a race intending to be a spoiler, but the numbers of voters looking for a third option alongside the unusual amount of capital available for an independent candidate has led to speculation on who could run in the lane between Messrs. Biden and Trump.An associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Miles Coleman, tells the Sun that, though voters consistently report wanting another candidate, that candidate would probably be limited to the role of a spoiler, even if they captured the 18 percent of voters who prefer “someone else.”“The No Labels thing is interesting — America is fundamentally a two-party country, and even if they land a big name, say Joe Manchin or Larry Hogan, it’s not like their nominee would be able to make the contest a true three-way race,” Mr. Coleman said.This problem facing any third party efforts is evident in the data. According to the ANES survey, even a candidate who was able to capture all of the “someone else” voters, Mr. Biden would still carry the election with 41 percent of the vote.The other issue, for No Labels or any other nonpartisan candidate, would be ballot access. Although they have already achieved ballot access in some states, like Arizona, they would still have to win enough electoral votes to carry the Electoral College.“Not to put too fine a point on it, but their electoral map showing a pathway for a unity ticket is completely delusional,” Mr. Coleman says.Thus, the core issue concerning a nonpartisan or third party run would again be who the candidate in question takes votes from, rather than what states he could win. According to the ANES survey, Mr. Trump would probably be the biggest loser in this regard.“In 2016, with two unpopular nominees, the country seemed to be more open to third parties — they took 7 percent nationwide, which was a good showing,” Mr. Coleman says. “But in the last Biden versus Trump match, things were more straight-party.”

Manchin Makes an Appearance in Iowa as Americans Beg for a Third Option

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