A Japanese Defense Buildup Could Form a Regional Counterweight to Communist China

Can President Trump and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, aka “Japan’s Thatcher,” dominate the Indo Pacific in the same manner that President Reagan and the late British premier won the Cold War?Fresh from an impressive election victory, Ms. Takaichi’s widely-anticipated buildup of Japan’s military capabilities, as well as tightening relations with America and other allies, could encourage other Asian neighbors to stand up to Communist China. The Liberal Democratic Party won more than two thirds of the seats in the lower house of Japan’s parliament, the Diet. Ms. Takaichi now has a strong mandate to implement her muscular regional policies. Next she is scheduled to visit Washington in March. Mr. Trump “likes Takaichi very much, and he will like her even more now, as she is now most definitely a winner,” a Japanse official tells the Sun. Following the recent completion of a trade agreement that reduced American tariffs on India, Mr. Trump now has an opportunity to consolidate strong ties with countries that see themselves as a counterweight to Communist China’s aspiration of dominating Asia and beyond. Close American ties with Japan might be key. Mr. Trump delights in Japan’s leading role on foreign investments, pledging last year a $550 billion investment in American semiconductors, energy, and artificial intelligence firms. Japanese car companies’ presence in American cities create jobs. Last summer’s Nippon purchase of U.S. Steel, pledging $11 billion in new investment, gave the president a veto right on the iconic brand’s decisions. In addition, Mr. Trump often highlights his successful pushing of European members of the North Atlantic Treaty to increase their defense budgets. Ms. Takaishi advocates a military buildup in formerly pacifist Japan.“We need Japan’s help probably as much as they need ours,” a retired Marine colonel who helped create Japan’s amphibious force, Grant Newsham, tells the Sun. “With a decent Japanese military combined with ours, that changes the equation a lot, particularly the more we can work and operate together.”If America and Japan tighten military relations, Colonel Newsham adds, “you’re going to find other countries in the region are going to say, well, maybe we can get in on this as well.” America, Japan, India, and Australia are allied under a group known as the Quad, which often conducts joint military exercises. While Australia makes inroads to Beijing, these quad drills are an anathema to the People’s Liberation Army, which conducts similar exercises alongside the Russian, North Korean, and Iranian militaries. First Island ChainAs Communist China flexes muscles across the region, America is stressing the strategic importance of ensuring freedom of navigation on the Pacific Ocean in Asia’s eastern edge. Including Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan. “We will erect a strong denial defense along the First Island Chain,” the Department of War wrote in January’s National Defense Strategy for 2026. “We will also urge and enable key regional allies and partners to do more for our collective defense.” Beginning of Beautiful Friendship? Back in November, Ms. Takaichi told the Diet that a Communist invasion of the Republic of China would be a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan and that it could prompt Tokyo to exercise its right of self defense. Beijing reacted angrily, imposing sanctions and a ban on Chinese tourists visiting Japan.Ms. Takaichi’s refusal to back down was widely cheered at home. It is seen as one of the top reasons for her successful bet on a snap election. Also cheering was President Lai Ching-te of the Republic of China. “We look forward to working with you to ensure that Taiwan and Japan continue to face regional challenges together, guided by our shared values and a spirit of mutually beneficial cooperation,” Mr. Lai wrote Monday on X, congratulating Ms. Takaichi on her election victory. The Other SideJapan’s nuclear-armed neighbors, Russia, North Korea, and Communist China, are irate. In recent weeks Beijing sent a number of angry letters to Secretary General Antonio Guterres of the United Nations, claiming that Japan is now a threat to the post-WWII order.Moscow, which has a long-standing dispute with Japan over islands the Soviets occupied at the end of the war, never signed a peace treaty with Tokyo. Last month the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, expressed “concerns that, alongside Germany, certain unhealthy trends are also emerging in Japan, linked to the desire of some political forces to return to the militarization of society.”The Constitution and Defense Japan’s aversion to militarization, as embodied by Article 9 of the Japanese post-World War II constitution, is now fading. Younger Japanese are less concerned about the country’s World War II legacy than about current threats from the country’s hostile, nuclear-armed neighbors. Memories of Hiroshima and Nagasaki aside, Japan has the ability to become nuclear-armed fairly quickly if threatened. The constitution was mostly dictated with heavy input from General Douglas MacArthur, Japan’s post-war military governor. Article Nine dictated a renunciation of war. It also banned Japan from forming land, sea, and air forces. It did allow for self defense, though. Ms. Takaichi’s mentor, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, launched a drive to redefine “self defense” to allow arming up.A repeal of Article Nine necessitates two third majorities in the Diet’s lower and upper houses and a national referendum. The Sunday election results are seen as a “reflection of how the ghosts of World War Two have been expunged,” Colonel Newsham says, adding he believes that Ms. Takaichi will now attempt to change the constitution.

A Japanese Defense Buildup Could Form a Regional Counterweight to Communist China

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