Could an Asteroid Kill Us All? Unlikely, Calculations Suggest
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WASHINGTON — The risk that an asteroid capable of wiping out humanity will crash into Earth is minuscule, new calculations suggest, but the chances of a smaller one destroying a city or setting off a catastrophic tsunami remain unclear and may be higher than previous estimates.
The calculations were presented at a four-day meeting in Washington this week, leading scores of scientists present to conclude that NASA needs to move aggressively to meet a congressional deadline for identifying most of the potentially hazardous smaller asteroids and to develop ways to deflect them if they home in on Earth.
But in a report released to Congress yesterday, the space agency said it does not have the funds to do the precautionary work, called for in its 2005 authorization bill.
The agency said it is technically feasible to meet the congressional goal of identifying most small “near Earth objects” by 2020, but it said it would have to rely on telescopes built for other purposes and on spacecraft being developed by other agencies. It did not address who would fund research on ways to destroy or divert an asteroid before it became a danger.
“Due to current budget constraints, NASA cannot initiate a new program at this time,” said the report, obtained by the Washington Post.
The NASA document was immediately criticized by the chairman of the House Committee on Science and Technology, Rep. Bart Gordon, a Democrat of Tennessee.
“We are still reviewing the report, but it’s clear that NASA’s recommended approach isn’t a credible plan to achieve the goal specified in the NASA Authorization Act,” he said in a statement. “The Committee will continue to pursue this issue in the coming year with the goal of obtaining a more responsive approach.”
The chairman of this week’s Planetary Defense Conference, William Ailor of the Aerospace Corp., a nonprofit established by Congress to support the Air Force’s space defense program, said scientists generally agree that the risk to Earth from large asteroids is small. Researchers have identified more than 700 of these potential “planet killers” — out of an estimated 1,000 — and found that not one is on a collision course with Earth.
