It’s going to be June 5 all over again for the Fred Thompson campaign — as if the summer never even happened. At least that’s what they hope.

What happened on June 5? That was the last time Mr. Thompson skipped a Republican debate in order to carve out his own TV niche, away from the 10 or so poor sops stuck up on stage with each other in front of actual voters and the glare of a skeptical press.

In fact, it’s almost eerie. On June 5, Mr. Thompson skipped a debate in Manchester, N.H., at the height of the buzz about his potential candidacy — right after he announced a “testing the waters” committee — in favor of appearing on Fox News for a one-on-one with conservative talker (and Thompson fan) Sean Hannity. Next Wednesday, September 5, Mr. Thompson will skip another debate in Manchester, N.H., this time in favor of jetting out to Los Angeles to talk to Jay Leno, ahead of his Thursday Webcast announcement.

That’s right, folks, an announcement. Not an announcement about announcing. Not an announcement about “testing the waters” in advance of someday thinking about announcing that he’s announcing. An announcement. As Mr. Thompson’s recently hired national political director put it on a conference call to supporters yesterday afternoon: “Fred Thompson will officially become a candidate for president of the United States.”

It took him long enough.

Of course, from the Thompson camp’s perspective — at least according to their initial thinking, eight or so staffs ago — there was precious little to be gained by wading into the presidential race before now. The summer months are slow. Americans aren’t paying attention to politics. The Iowa Straw Poll happened, but Mayor Giuliani and Senator McCain of Arizona boycotted, so Mitt Romney’s victory there was of little value.

The problem, though, as the newest Thompson staff may have begun to realize, is that while the public may have been tuned out, the pundits and the political activists were definitely tuned in. And Mr. Thompson’s Hamlet act was wearing thin, beginning to do real damage to the campaign.

The Thompson organization already disclosed lackluster fund raising for June, when it took in roughly $3 million. It’s also let on in recent days that July and August won’t be so hot, either. Republican donors were already holding back this campaign season; a noncandidate who couldn’t commit to the race wasn’t doing much to get people’s checkbooks flapping.

Down in Florida, which is likely to be decisive in this year’s Republican primary, much of the damage may already be done. If leaders and donors in Jacksonville and other parts of the state being targeted by Mr. Thompson, such as the panhandle and the I–4 corridor, break against him and for Mr. Romney, it’s hard to see how the former Tennessee senator and “Law & Order” actor can compete.

(Mr. McCain is essentially out of the race in Florida; he has no staff there and no future visits planned.)

Of course, Mr. Thompson may pull out of it. Donors and activists who needed a commitment, well, now they’ve got one. Mr. Thompson may be missing the next New Hampshire debate, but there’s yet another coming up on September 27. As for Florida, Mr. Thompson has already announced a multiday “grassroots tour” of the state, right after he hits the traditional early three.

Still, it’s hard to look back at the last three months and say that the Thompson campaign hasn’t suffered for its sluggishness.

When Mr. Thompson skipped the first Republican debate, back on May 3 in California, the clever thing for pundits to say was that he won by staying away. It was, in many ways, true — but it was also the last time it would be. By the time June 5 rolled around, the staying-above-the-fray tactic was already starting to backfire. That night, Mr. Giuliani turned in a debate performance that pulled his campaign out of a tailspin brought on by his dismal answers to questions on abortion.

What if Mr. Thompson had been there to help that Rudy tailspin keep on spinning? What if he now were entering a two-man race for the Republican nomination (Giuliani vs. Thompson) as opposed to a two-man race to take on Mr. Giuliani (Thompson vs. Romney)? Perhaps the New Hampshire debate organizers should leave out an empty podium Wednesday night — a tombstone in memory of missed opportunities.