Powers, Competing for Influence in the Iran War’s Aftermath, Seize on a Global Trade Project

An ambitious President Biden-era trade project connecting India to Europe is taking new primacy as the Hormuz crisis deepens and while regional and global powers scramble to reshape the future of the Mideast and beyond. The project, known as the India-Mideast-Europe Corridor, was originally envisioned as a trade route to United Arab Emirates and Saudi ports from Mumbai. Goods were then to travel on a newly built railway to Aqaba, Jordan, and the Israeli port of Haifa, from which they would be loaded on ships to Cyprus, Greece, the rest of Europe, and farther out, to South Carolina.In comparison to shipping to Europe from Asia through the Red Sea, transit time is estimated to be shortened by 40 percent, and transportation costs cut by 30 percent. Since its inception during a G-20 summit at New Delhi in September 2023, the corridor was mostly a futuristic vision, moving little beyond the drawing board. Then came the current chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz and the prospect of a similar shutdown of the Red Sea’s Yemeni Houthi-threatened Bab el Mandeb Strait. The corridor is now seen as an alternative to the control of the Islamic Republic and its proxies over vital commerce and energy routes. As a result, newly formed alliances and competitors are attempting to tweak IMEC’s original route, in some cases sacrificing economic viability to satisfy geopolitical ambitions.Last week Saudi Arabia leaked to reporters that it is considering dropping Israel from the route, using Syrian ports to ship goods to Europe instead of the originally planned Haifa port. Turkey, the dominant power over Damascus’s former Islamist militant, President Ahemd al-Sharaa, has for months aimed at using its own ports, which would extend shipping routes and likely make the project more expensive. India has its own political alliances. While the Sunni Islamist Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is tightening relations with like-minded regimes in Qatar and Pakistan, Prime Minister Narendra Modi favors the UAE, Israel, and European allies. India and the India-Mideast-Europe Corridor’s InceptionThe original IMEC idea was hatched by India and the UAE, the executive editor at the New Delhi-based Hindustan Times, Shishir Gupta, told The New York Sun. “This is not a Saudi idea. If the Saudis want to do it their own way, then this definitely is not IMEC. IMEC will always be between India, UAE, Israel, Europe, and America.” Tightening routes would expand commerce between India and Europe. Trade with the world, with an emphasis on free-market economies, is increasingly seen in India as a possible remedy for poverty-stricken pockets across the country, including by boosting job markets. Beyond America, Europe, and the Mideast, India is advancing trade with Japan, South Korea, and other Asian powers. Last week Mr. Modi cut several lucrative deals in a visit to Melbourne, Australia. Shorter export and import routes as well as cyberoptic cables involved in IMEC could tremendously benefit India’s growing economy, now the world’s sixth largest with a gross domestic product of $4.15 trillion. In addition to Israel, Mr. Modi has raised the importance of the project in recent visits to the UAE, Cyprus, Greece, and Italy. India’s Adani Group now holds 70 percent of Haifa’s port. Beyond such alliances, “you also need to look at India’s relations with the other side,” a former Israeli ambassador to India, Daniel Carmon, told the Sun. “Delhi has traditionally had close ties with consecutive regimes in Syria, but its relations with Turkey are icy, and anger at Pakistan is at a boiling point.”The Sunni AllianceThe Saudi leak of a possible IMEC rerouting to Syria might amount to no more than a trial balloon, yet it is a sign of things to come. “What people are saying today is as important as the process,” Mr. Carmon, now with the newly formed MindIsrael think tank, said. Riyadh, he notes, is adamant on a signal that Israel sees a path to Palestinian statehood before Saudi Arabia could establish relations with the Jewish state Separately the Saudis — as well as Qatar, the UAE, and other regional players — are investing in Syria in order to weaken Turkey’s influence and pull Mr. Sharaa to their side. President Trump too is working hard in an attempt to “guide Syria into a situation where it’s more stable and more reliable,” the executive director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy, Jonathan Schanzer, told the Sun. Ankara, which is competing with Riyadh for primacy in the Sunni world, is allied with like-minded Sunnis at Doha and Islamabad. For now, though, Mr. Erdoğan dominantes Mr. Sharaa. Over the weekend Turkish Navy vessels landed for the first time at the Syrian port of Latakia, which Ankara designates to replace Haifa as the main IMEC node to Europe.That is unlikely to be the view from Europe’s partners in the corridor. Cyprus and Greece are at odds with Turkey on a host of issues. Using ports in Syria, and even more so in Turkey, is also likely to add costs to the originally proposed route. Yet Ankara and allies, including in leaked reports from Riyadh, are presenting Syria as a safe route that is less prone to attacks than Israel.Mr. Sharaa, though, is yet to stabilize Syria and exert his authority over the entire country. “If you talk to India, if you talk to probably the UAE, they’re going to be more inclined to go with Israel as a partner,” Mr. Schanzer said. In contrast to Syrian ports, the Haifa route is “more predictable, has better security, and, you know, fewer jihadis,” he says. IMEC and the Mideast’s FutureThe project “is a game-changing investment,” Mr. Biden said of IMEC when it was launched. “It will usher in a new era of connectivity from India across the Middle East into Europe.” What once looked like a straightforward lucrative trade deal, though, is now snarled in competing regional and global interests.All players are looking to reposition themselves as the Tehran regime weakens, and while the Islamic Republic blocks shipping in a major artery where more than 20 percent of the world’s energy products travel.The competition over IMEC “is the result of the unraveling of the world order, or the regional order, rather,” Mr. Schanzer said. “It’s happening militarily. It’s happening in terms of spheres of influence, and it’s happening in terms of energy and military. These pieces are all coming together.”

Powers, Competing for Influence in the Iran War’s Aftermath, Seize on a Global Trade Project

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