Jets on Track To Score Big Prize at NFL Draft

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The New York Sun

The Jets fans who will pack Radio City Music Hall for the NFL draft on April 26 can be assured of one thing: They’ll see something interesting.

After a dull, disappointing season on the field in 2007, the 2008 draft is full of intrigue and excitement for the Jets. The NFL has invited six prospects to attend the draft in person, and the Jets, picking sixth, will almost certainly choose one of them. The six players — a Louisiana State University defensive tackle, Glenn Dorsey; an Ohio State defensive end, Vernon Gholston; a University of Virginia defensive end, Chris Long; a University of Michigan offensive tackle, Jake Long; a University of Arkansas running back, Darren McFadden, and a Boston College quarterback, Matt Ryan — are all well-regarded enough as prospects that none are likely to be passed over by a dozen or more teams, as Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn was last year. With 10 days to go before the draft, it appears that the only way the Jets would decline to select one of those top six players is if Ryan were the only one available when the Jets’ pick came. Having a quarterback as the best player available would be the worst-case scenario for the Jets, because they’re ready to head into the 2008 season with Kellen Clemens and Chad Pennington as their quarterbacks.

For coach Eric Mangini and general manager Mike Tannenbaum, all of the other five players could make an immediate contribution to the Jets as rookies. But the best-case scenario would be drafting McFadden, the one player on the board who has the potential to instantly transform their team.

The current NFL player McFadden most resembles, in terms of his athletic ability and his college production, is Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings, the 2007 NFL rookie of the year. That’s not to say that McFadden will be as good a rookie as Peterson was. In fact, considering what a huge impact Peterson had as a rookie, it’s unlikely that any first-year player will be as good in 2008 as Peterson was in 2007. But McFadden has the combination of on-field production (4,589 yards in three college seasons) and blazing speed (a 4.33-second 40-yard dash) that Peterson displayed before the Vikings drafted him a year ago.

Drafting McFadden would send a strong message about what the Jets want to do on offense. For starters, it would mean a reduced workload for running back Thomas Jones, who was mostly disappointing after the Jets traded for him last year. Although Jones was durable enough to play all 16 games and rush for 1,119 yards, he averaged just 3.6 yards a carry, never had a run longer than 36 yards, and ran for only one touchdown. McFadden has such big play capability that you can just close your eyes and picture him breaking off a few touchdown runs of 40, 50, or 60 yards in the Meadowlands next year.

Adding McFadden wouldn’t spell the end for Jones, however. Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer would have fun diagramming plays that use the talents of Jones, McFadden, and backup running back Leon Washington, and if the Jets are trying to build a playoff team in 2008, adding McFadden to the offense is the draft pick that would give the biggest boost to their playoff chances.

None of this is to say that McFadden is a sure thing. After all, two years ago Jets fans would have been ecstatic if they could have drafted that year’s star running back, Reggie Bush. But Bush has been mediocre with the New Orleans Saints. Some analysts believe that McFadden is too thin to run between the tackles, break through the grasp of NFL defenders, and churn out tough yardage. Others are concerned about his character: Twice at Arkansas McFadden was involved in scuffles at bars that resulted in the police being called, although he was not arrested in either incident.

But while he’s not a sure thing, McFadden is as close to a sure thing as this draft has. And that’s why the odds are good that he won’t be available to the Jets, either because the Oakland Raiders (who own the fourth pick) draft him or because another team that covets him trades into the top five picks. If the Jets don’t take McFadden, they’re likely to build their defense with Gholston or Chris Long, or maybe a surprise pick like one of the highly touted USC players in the draft, defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis or linebacker Keith Rivers.

All of those players would help in Mangini’s quest to acquire personnel that fits better with the 3–4 defense that he prefers. But if the Jets can’t draft McFadden, the best option would be trading down. The Jets have already in this off-season given contracts with a combined $74 million in guarantees to free agents Calvin Pace, Damien Woody, Alan Faneca, and Kris Jenkins, and the sixth pick in the draft would command another $20 million or so. If they could find a trading partner, the Jets would be wise to save some money and collect some picks lower in the draft order.

But the most likely scenario is that the Jets stay where they are and draft the best player available with the sixth pick. If that player is McFadden, Jets fans will cheer louder on draft day 2008 than they ever did during the season in 2007.

Mr. Smith is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com


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