Pitcher’s Park or Not, Padres Are Lights Out
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The San Diego Padres find themselves fighting for first place in the National League West, despite having an offense that ranks with some of the worst teams in the league. The poor offensive output — just 4.3 runs a game — is partially a product of the Padres’ home field, PETCO Park. On the other hand, their league-best pitching staff does not owe as much of its productive start to PETCO as many fans and analysts tend to believe.
With a rotation that includes dual aces, Jake Peavy and Chris Young, a club does not need a severe pitching environment like PETCO to succeed, but it certainly helps. As does filling out the rest of your rotation with Greg Maddux and David Wells, who still have life in their games despite each having passed his 40th birthday long ago. San Diego’s fifth starter, Justin Germano, is a perfect fit for PETCO: In spite of a pedestrian strikeout rate, he gives up a lot of balls on the ground while keeping his walk rates down, and gives up flyballs that are swallowed by the vastness of his home park. This keeps his hit rate down as well, and also allows for the occasional solo home run without seeing too much damage from men on base. Peavy looks healthy in 2007, ranked second in the majors in strikeouts per nine and third in ERA. He has managed to return to form, beginning to induce more groundballs than flyballs again, an aspect of his game that made him dominant in 2004 and 2005. Young has followed up on his debut Padres season with another campaign sure to make Texas Rangers fans weep. He leads the majors in ERA while making full use of PETCO’s roomy interior. Young is an extreme flyball pitcher who often has trouble with the long ball, but keeps men off the basepaths for the most part, and PETCO helps to stem the homer tide.
Maddux and Wells are well off their respective career peak seasons, but both are stingy with free passes to the opposition. Maddux has an ERA+ of 102 while Wells is at 97, just what is needed from mid-rotation hurlers. Maddux has been much better at home, but much of that difference can be attributed to one poor start against Seattle, in which he lasted just 3.2 innings while giving up 12 hits and seven runs. Wells, on the other hand, has relied on PETCO, as his 6.25 road ERA attests, and he has pitched more effectively in the last two months on the heels of a terrible April.
The success of the pitching staff does not rest solely with the Padres’ talented rotation — the bullpen may be even more impressive. Collectively, the Friar pen has held opponents to .219 AVG/.287 OBA /.317 SLG; any line that makes the Dodgers’ Juan Pierre appear useful in comparison is downright scary. The first-year manager, Bud Black, knows how to get the most production from his relievers, with his best getting into the highest-leverage situations.
Trevor Hoffman is still a mystery to hitters on the mound, and his 2.492 Win Expectation above Replacement (WXRL) is second on the team only to newcomer Heath Bell, who was acquired from the Mets along with reliever Royce Ring for Ben Johnson and Jon Adkins, two bit players on the Pads’ 2006 roster. Scott Linebrink, who was picked up from the scrap heap back in May 2003, continues his stretch as one of the more (quietly) dominant setup men in the game with his 2.391 WXRL. The Padres do not sport a single reliever at or below replacement level as measured by WXRL, and they have plenty of them well above that threshold.
The difference between the home and road statistics for the Padres pitching is not as great as one would assume, given the nature of PETCO. Opponents are hitting a paltry .231/.288/.321 in the cavernous park, but on the road are at just .252/.312/.375. The difference in OPS is 78 points, but that’s still just 687 on the road; that would be good enough for third in the majors overall, if the number were the Padres’ actual opponent OPS.
Because of the gaudy home and road numbers coming from the pitching staff, the league-average offense of the Padres has succeeded with its combination of power and patience. Even though they have hit just .231/.303/.367 at home, that’s better production than what their pitchers are allowing. Their road line of .251/.321/.410 would give them an OPS ranking closer to the middle of the pack. The offense is better than it looks anyway, since a low batting average is the only significant issue. The Padres’ Isolated Power of .148 (Slugging minus Batting Average) and Isolated Patience of .071 (On-Base minus Batting Average) are right around the MLB averages, rather than toward the bottom of the pack.
The numbers are also skewed negatively by Mike Cameron and Kevin Kouzmanoff’s poor starts. Cameron started the season looking slow both offensively and defensively, but has come around to hit .297/.348/.538, with 28 extra-base-hits since May 1,following a disastrous .192/.267/.240 line in April. Kouzy struggled worse than Cameron, hitting .113/.171/.183 for the month, but since May 1 he has also rebounded to the tune of .274/.337/.479. With those two hitting well, the offense should finish the year with improved numbers. Despite numbers that at first glance seem poor, the Padres field one of the better teams in the National League. The front office has built the team intelligently, adding players who can exploit PETCO on both sides of the ball. Although the offense struggles at home, so does everyone else, and the team is capable of beating opponents on the road. With the Padres potentially headed for a third straight division title despite having to contend with their big-budget rivals in the NL West, it’s clear that Kevin Towers and Co. have provided another example of how much easier it is to build a winning team in a pitching park than a hitters’ park. Teams building new parks should take note.
Mr. Normandin is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseballprospectus.com.

