Rotation Will Be Halos’ Crutch in Playoffs

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What once looked like what might be an exciting race to the finish in the AL West has turned into a blowout, as the Los Angeles Angels are the easy victors over the Seattle Mariners. This does not mean, though, that the Angels are without their issues as the season turns towards October. Plenty of questions remain for them to resolve heading into the final weeks of the season.

In the meantime, the Halos have been able to focus on finishing with a better record than the Cleveland Indians in order to face the team that wins the wild card. As things currently stand, the Angels would face the Yankees in the Divisional Series, with the Indians drawing the Red Sox. Because the Angels and Indians are tied 5–5 in their season series, the Angels must finish with a better record than Cleveland in order to face the wild-card team; otherwise, Cleveland, who holds the better intradivision record, would take the tiebreaker.

The Halos went 6–3 against the Yankees in 2007, and just 4–6 against the Red Sox. Small sample-size issues aside, the preference in a short series would be to face the Yankees, especially with the Angels’ quality of pitching. While the Angels’ rotation is not that much better than the Yankees’, a short-series rotation of John Lackey (3.21 ERA, 202 IP), Kelvim Escobar (3.46 ERA, 189 2/3 IP), and Jered Weaver (3.90 ERA, 150 IP) would be formidable — and potentially too much for even the Yankees offense to overcome.

On the other hand, if the Angels were to face the Red Sox, they would be facing the top pitching team in the league, one capable of slowing down the Angels bats with a tremendous short-series rotation of their own. This wouldn’t bode well for the Angels, who have scored fewer runs than the Sox to begin with.

A major problem for the Angels is that Lackey is a question mark in either potential series, thanks to his poor record against both teams. Over the course of the ace’s career, he has struggled against high-offense teams that hit home runs. Since 2002, the Red Sox have hit .340 AVG /.403 OBA /.555 SLG in 265 at-bats in games against Lackey, while the Yankees have hit .290/.368/.452. This year, Lackey has pitched well against the Yankees (.226/.293/.345 in 84 at-bats), but has continued to struggle against the Sox (.408/.431/.653 in 49 at-bats). If the Angels are to use their rotation to full advantage, a series against the Yankees would make for a better matchup.

The outfield situation has also been a bit of a question mark lately, as an ankle injury to center fielder Gary Matthews Jr. has forced a shuffle. Matthews has been above-average defensively this year, which was a huge boost to an Angels outfield that also features the slowing Vladimir Guerrero and Garrett Anderson (one of the worst-fielding left fielders these days). With flyball pitchers such as John Lackey and Jered Weaver on the roster — and the fact that all three of the other AL clubs lined up for the playoffs are heavy hitters — Matthews’s defense is crucial to the success of the pitching staff. He should be back in time for the playoffs, which will be a boost to a defense that has struggled when Reggie Willits has manned center.

In addition to the return of Matthews’s glove, Garrett Anderson’s bat seems to have come alive in the second half. The Angels were criticized for keeping Anderson in the cleanup spot while he hit just .285/.286/.424 — that isn’t a misprint, he walked just once — before the All-Star Game. But he has come on strong in the second half with a .316/.376/.564 line, while also driving in 62 of his 77 RBI in the second half. The high RBI total is a product of his place in the lineup — but at least he was bringing the runners home this time around, unlike in the first half. On a team with just one offensive star, Anderson’s bat is a key to the Halos’ playoff success.

If the team’s offense is going to run on all cylinders, the Angels will need super-utilityman Chone Figgins and second baseman Howie Kendrick to play, and play healthy at that. Figgins has hit .500 in 30 at-bats since returning from a hand injury, and he’s even hit for some power, with four doubles in that time. Kendrick has also managed to return from injury and play well, posting a .361/.378/.500 batting line since August 20. Although he has shown little in the way of home run power, if he’s hitting well over .300 with hard-lined singles and doubles, the Angels won’t need him to.

The offensive woes from the infield have come from shortstop Orlando Cabrera and first baseman Casey Kotchman. After productive first halves from both players, Cabrera has managed an OPS of just .667 in the second half, while Kotchman has slugged just .415, despite a .298 batting average. These are inadequate offensive numbers, especially for Kotchman, relative to what most first basemen produce. The Angels will need to hope that they can both get out of their funks. Cabrera’s struggles are not that much of a surprise, given that his .328 batting average in the first half propped up his other pedestrian rate states — Cabrera is a career .273 hitter who batted .282 last season.

Given that their lineup won’t be the strongest on the AL’s slate in the playoffs, the Angels will need to rely on pitching in order to beat the juggernauts from the East. If the offense gets seriously singles-happy, though, they are as dangerous as anyone else in the playoffs, as seen back in 2002. But otherwise they will need to slow down their opponents with their rotation and one of the better bull pens in the AL. If they are able to secure a first-round series against the Yankees, their chances of success may increase further, because as the Cardinals reminded us last year, the playoffs are a whole new ball game for all teams involved.

Mr. Normandin is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseballprospectus.com.


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