Strict Rules for GOP Debates Have Some Wondering: What If the Top Candidates Just Don’t Show Up?

With the entry into the 2024 Republican presidential campaign of candidates who explicitly say President Trump should not be president again and strict requirements from the GOP on what it takes for a candidate to get on the debate stage, the first primary debate this August might be missing some high-profile names.In terms of requirements, the Republican Party wants candidates to have at least 40,000 unique donors, broken down as 200 donors across 20 states or more, to appear on the debate stage on August 23. Beyond this, it is requiring candidates to poll at about 1 percent in at least three national polls or to poll above 1 percent in two national polls and one early-voting state poll, meaning Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada. These polls must also meet requirements of their own, including surveying at least 800 registered Republican voters and not being conducted by a pollster affiliated with a candidate or candidate committee.Beyond the fundraising and polling requirements, candidates must also pledge to support the eventual nominee for president from the Republicans Party. “The RNC is committed to putting on a fair, neutral, and transparent primary process and the qualifying criteria set forth will put our party and eventual nominee in the best position to take back the White House come November 2024,” the RNC chairwoman, Ronna McDaniel, said in a statement. Although the fundraising and polling requirements could easily knock out a few contenders, some of whom like Governor Hutchinson are not regularly included in polls, this pledge to support the eventual nominee is proving to be a sticking point.The reason for this is that President Trump maintains a wide lead in the polls and, if trends continue, looks like a heavy favorite to win the nomination. Certain candidates, like Governor Christie and Vice President Pence, have explicitly said that they don’t think Mr. Trump should ever occupy the White House again, which may put them in a bind.Mr. Pence, for one, initially pledged to support Mr. Trump if he won the nomination before appearing to brush aside the issue entirely.“I will absolutely support the Republican nominee for president in 2024, especially if it’s me,” Mr. Pence said to Fox News.This comment came after Mr. Pence said, “Anyone who puts themselves over the Constitution,” including Mr. Trump, “should never be president of the United States.”When asked about the apparent contradiction by CNN, Mr. Pence refused to answer directly, saying, “I don’t think Donald Trump is going to be the nominee in the Republican Party,” and, “I have great confidence in Republican primary voters.”Mr. Christie, who has branded himself as a fighter who will go after Mr. Trump in the primary, told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos: “I will do whatever I have to do, George, to be on that stage.”“I’ll be on the debate stage and I will take the pledge that the RNC puts in front of me just as seriously as Donald Trump did eight years ago,” Mr. Christie said.When pressed on the issue, Mr. Christie said, “I’m going to do exactly what the RNC has set us up to do,” though it’s not clear whether he really intends to support Mr. Trump, should he be the nominee.Beyond the candidates who have positioned themselves in direct opposition to Mr. Trump, the former president himself could skip the debates entirely.Last month, one adviser to Mr. Trump told CNN: “Why would we debate? That would be stupid to go out there with that kind of lead.”In Mr. Trump’s absence, the debates would likely draw less attention because the former president not only tends to drive viewership to any program he’s on, he’s also the candidate to beat in the GOP primary.There are other candidates on the Republican side who also might simply have problems meeting the requirements in terms of donors and polling numbers.Candidates like Governors Burgum and Hutchinson and a talk radio host, Larry Elder, might be in this group.The only candidates who don’t seem to have any complications to their planned debate attendance are Governors DeSantis and Haley, Senator Scott, and a conservative businessman, Vivek Ramaswamy.

Strict Rules for GOP Debates Have Some Wondering: What If the Top Candidates Just Don’t Show Up?

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