Suppose They Threw a Quagmire and Nobody Came?

President Trump is “very close” to achieving his “objectives” in Iran and says he’s considering “winding down” the war. The announcement, and military realities, fly in the face of persistent narratives that what he calls “the terrorist regime” is on the cusp of victory.“Suppose they gave a war and nobody came?” Charlotte Keys asked in a 1966 essay on America’s growing involvement in Vietnam. The term “quagmire” emerged to describe the effort a year later — the same word a New York Times columnist, Nicholas Kristof, used for Iran on Wednesday.Americans fought in Vietnam for 20 years and suffered over 58,000 killed. This is Day 22 of Operation Epic Fury and combat deaths stand at seven with total losses at 13. That’s equal to the American servicemembers lost at Afghanistan’s Abbey Gate during 2021’s withdrawal alone.In 1983’s Operation Urgent Fury, 19 Americans died at Grenada, a Caribbean island the size of Philadelphia. It’s possible to mourn every life lost while acknowledging that casualties in Iran, about 2.5 times the size of Texas, are so low as to render comparisons to Vietnam illogical.Friday on Truth Social, Mr. Trump declared his goals almost fulfilled, including “completely degrading” Iran’s “navy and air force,” “anti-aircraft weaponry,” “missile capability,” and “defense-industrial base.” It didn’t sound like he was being sucked down by any of that quicksand so ubiquitous on TV shows of the 1970s.Mr. Trump concluded his list with “never allowing Iran to get even close to nuclear capability” and “protecting” local allies, whose numbers have grown since Tehran began lashing out at its neighbors. Instead of undermining America’s support, Iran has antagonized neutrals and opponents of the war.On Friday, Saudi Arabia announced that it had “limited patience” with Iranian attacks and might “take military actions.” Muslim nations joining the fight alongside America and Israel is devastating for Tehran. So is Mr. Trump avoiding a ground invasion. Tehran can’t wage the asymmetric, Vietnam-style guerilla war it planned.Iran saw the Strait of Hormuz as its ace in the hole, but closing it violated the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea guaranteeing “transit passage.” On Friday, more nations signed a statement by European powers, Japan, and Canada to demand that Iran stop attacking “unarmed commercial vessels” and “civilian infrastructure.”Some set “regime change” as a test of the war’s success. Israel’s Operation Roaring Lion has advanced that, too. The IDF has eliminated Iran’s dictator, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and dozens of top regime officials. Khamenei’s son and replacement, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has yet to provide proof of life.Although what was called “the butcher’s bill” in World War I is only one metric of military victory, it’s hard to cast a large death toll as good news for Iran. Yet that’s just what the secretary of defense for President Obama, Senator Charles Hagel, did on CNN.“We are manufacturing a whole new generation of terrorists,” Mr. Hagel said, a version of the self-defeating mantra that “killing terrorists just creates more.” It’s fortunate that America didn’t apply this thinking, say, to Nazi Germany.Propaganda is the only front of the war on which Iran has been competitive. One canard holds that they’re winning because there hasn’t been a popular uprising. Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, though, have told Iranians that they’ll be signaled to flood the streets and reclaim their country only when the time is right. The son of Iran’s last shah, Reza Pahlavi, also asked his people to “sit tight” and wait for a “safer” moment. Iran’s press releases, AI-generated videos, and false crowing about destroying American aircraft carriers and jets may spread far and wide online, but reality tells a different story.With each passing hour, Tehran grows more isolated and its losses mount. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump sounds like he’s ready to declare success and end the conflict. The ayatollahs will win more pyrrhic PR victories. But on the ground, it looks like they banked on throwing a quagmire and nobody came.

Suppose They Threw a Quagmire and Nobody Came?

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