Vance Leads 2028 GOP Presidential Contenders in Polling, but Rubio’s Star Is Rising in First-in-the-Nation Primary State

Vice President JD Vance maintains strong support with Republican voters and leads the pack of potential 2028 GOP contenders for the White House. Yet despite MAGA infighting over the war in Iran, Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s prospects for the presidency are rising.A new poll of New Hampshire Republican voters — the first in the nation to cast presidential primary ballots — finds Mr. Vance earning 46 percent support to Mr. Rubio’s 27 percent. The poll, released by St. Anselm College on Monday, finds the rest of the GOP field in the low single digits.This may seem like a fait accompli for a GOP presidential nominee Vance, yet Mr. Rubio’s 27 percent support is a big jump from just 9 percent in a similar poll taken in November. This also comes as the poll finds 20 percent of New Hampshire GOP voters oppose the war in Iran. Mr. Rubio is largely seen as one of President Trump’s most ardent supporters of foreign interventions in the cabinet.“Support for Secretary Rubio has grown significantly,” the poll’s own analysis says, adding that Mr. Rubio “must now be considered a significant challenger to Vance.”“The donors, the grassroots leaders, the DC chattering class seems to have — and maybe even the president himself — some real questions about the vice president and that maybe Rubio is a better candidate,” a Republican strategist and former Trump appointee, Matthew Bartlett, tells The New York Sun.Mr. Vance is reportedly saying privately that he has not yet decided whether he will run for president in 2028. Mrs. Vance is expecting the couple’s fourth child. Mr. Trump’s approval rating is under water.Mr. Vance is also leading in national polls for the 2028 nomination, with an average of 41.4 percent support, according to 270toWin. Donald Trump Jr. comes in second with a polling average of 17.5 percent, followed by Mr. Rubio at 13.8 percent. It’s unclear now who the Donald Trump Jr. supporters would back if he were eliminated from the polls. Senator Ted Cruz is expected to make a challenge. Governor Ron DeSantis’s name is also being floated.The vice president has been uncharacteristically silent since the United States started its strikes in Iran in late February. “There is just no way that Donald Trump is going to allow this country to get into a multi-year conflict with no clear end in sight and no clear objective,” he told Fox News just days after the first strikes.Mr. Vance offered a more nuanced take last week. “Whatever your view is, when the president of the United States makes a decision, it’s your job to help make that decision as effective and successful as possible,” he said.National polling finds broad support for the Iran strikes among the MAGA base. More than 80 percent of self-identified MAGA Republicans support Mr. Trump’s actions, according to a Public First/Politico poll. Among non-MAGA Republicans, support sits at 61 percent.“America First now includes America Strikes First. It is working for Trump, at least right now,” Mr. Bartlett tells the Sun. “But it’s still unclear how it works out in the future, especially around choosing a nominee in 2028.”Mr. Vance is close with Tucker Carlson and rightwing influencers in the anti-interventionist space. Mr. Vance seems to be straddling both sides of this MAGA influencer war — at least for now. Megyn Kelly said on her podcast on Monday that she thinks the base is still behind Mr. Vance and can see the nuance in his position.Mr. Trump has refused so far to name a successor. President Obama famously overlooked his vice president, Joe Biden, when he endorsed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. “I think we have a lot of very capable people,” Mr. Trump told Fox News in February. “It’s too early.” Mr. Trump also recently told NBC News, “MAGA is me.”Mr. Vance travelled to Texas on Monday to headline a Republican National Committee fundraiser hosted by Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale. Mr. Vance is now serving as the RNC’s finance chairman, which will help solidify his relationships with the donor class. Mr. Vance already has strong ties to the tech right. The Trump-Vance ticket relied on support from a heterodox coalition that included tech titans, manosphere podcast listeners, independents, MAHA moms, libertarians, and disenchanted Democrats. The Democrats are expected to have a grueling primary in 2028. The St. Anselm poll finds Mr. Biden’s former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg winning in New Hampshire with a 14-point lead over second-place contender, Governor Gavin Newsom. One of Mr. Buttigieg’s greatest liabilities is his low support among black women, a powerful faction of the Democratic primary base. Less than 2 percent of New Hampshire is black.

Vance Leads 2028 GOP Presidential Contenders in Polling, but Rubio’s Star Is Rising in First-in-the-Nation Primary State

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