The Subtle Magic of Trump’s Dealmaking Skills on Full Display in Ukraine Peace Negotiations

So this is “the art of the deal.” The author of the book with that title is illustrating the subtleties of dealmaking in negotiations about Ukraine.First, flatter the person with whom you are negotiating, calling him a “genius,” “savvy,” and “very smart.” Disregard Franklin D. Roosevelt’s 1940 warning that “no man can tame a tiger into a kitten by stroking it.” President Trump began his charm offensive at a 2018 meeting with Vladimir Putin at Helsinki. There Mr. Trump accepted Mr. Putin’s denial of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. Mr. Trump thereby repudiated U.S. intelligence agencies, which he has subsequently called “our ‘intelligence’ lowlifes.”Second, emphasize that your diplomacy is uninfected by normative judgments about the origins of the conflict. Contrast yourself with finicky people who moralize against using violence to redraw European borders. On February 22, 2022, when (Mr. Trump has subsequently said) Ukraine “started” a war against Russia, Mr. Trump saw on television many Russian tanks (rolling defensively?): “I said, ‘This is genius.’ … Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine … as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful … I said, ‘How smart is that?’ He’s going to go in and be a peacekeeper. … That’s the strongest peace force I’ve ever seen. There were more tanks than I’ve ever seen. They’re going to keep the peace, all right.”Third, signal eagerness to end the conflict. You can do this, as Mr. Trump did, by vowing to end it “before I even take office,” or “on day one,” or “within 24 hours,” whichever comes first. To further underscore your eagerness to settle, and hence your willingness to settle on almost any terms, select as your vice president someone who says: “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine.” Then have him tell a European security conference that the biggest threat to European security “is not Russia.” (What is? Europe’s internal rot.)Fourth, appoint as your chief peace negotiator Stephen Witkoff. He has a mind so open that amazing thoughts stride in: “I don’t regard Putin as a bad guy,” and, “It was gracious of him to accept me, to see me.” Having never spent a day in diplomacy, Mr. Witkoff can amiably negotiate with that gracious scamp Putin, forgiving his fibs about pausing attacks during Easter, and against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Mr. Witkoff’s other credential is praise from one of the president’s children. Donald Trump Jr. says Mr. Witkoff “is a born winner.” A real estate dealmaker, Mr. Witkoff will see the problem of ending the war through the lens of a real estate transaction, disregarding international law, history, nationalism, ethnicity, religion, and other distracting facts.Fifth, begin negotiations about Ukraine’s dismemberment and survival without the involvement of Ukrainian negotiators. They are unhelpfully biased — against their nation’s dismemberment, and for their nation’s survival.Sixth, make Ukrainians malleable by telling their president, in the Oval Office, that “you should have never started” the war. And call the president a “dictator,” at the risk of reinforcing Russia’s demand for “de-Nazification” of Ukraine.Seventh, streamline the negotiations by eliminating contentious topics that require negotiating. Promise American acceptance of Mr. Putin’s 2014 seizure of Crimea, and American acceptance of Russian possession of the approximately 20 percent of Ukraine it has seized. Promise that Ukraine will never be a member of NATO, and therefore will remain vulnerable to a third Russian invasion (2014, 2022, whenever) at Mr. Putin’s convenience.Eighth, when Mr. Putin responds to this rain of unilateral American concessions by continuing to rain destruction on Ukraine, flex the American eagle’s razor-sharp talons. On Truth Social, Mr. Trump artfully pleaded: “Vladimir, STOP!” Mr. Putin launched ballistic missiles; Mr. Trump fired back not only a salvo of CAPITAL LETTERS but also an exclamation point. Mr. Putin must be shaken, not having foreseen quite this level of American escalation.In Foreign Affairs, Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin writes: “Putin has made confrontation with the West the organizing principle of Russian life.” Social media are the sinews of America’s negotiating strength.Ninth, an artful dealmaker will issue severe warnings. Mr. Trump says that if Mr. Putin protracts the negotiations, the United States might walk away. To untrained minds, this might seem to proclaim minimal American interest in the outcome, encouraging Mr. Putin to prolong the war, and pressuring Ukraine to make concessions quickly, lest the eventual deal get worse as time goes by.If, however, dealmaking is an art, perhaps the dealmaker’s artfulness can be understood only by connoisseurs. What, however, if there is an asymmetry? What if Mr. Trump wants to get to “yes” but Mr. Putin wants to get to Kyiv?The Washington Post

The Subtle Magic of Trump’s Dealmaking Skills on Full Display in Ukraine Peace Negotiations

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