While Gulf Countries Are Unlikely To Join Battle, Their Rebuke of Iran Could Bode a New Mideast Architecture

Gulf leaders’ hawkish turn against the Islamic Republic is unlikely to translate into military action. It does, though, represent a major shift in attitudes that could create new realities in the Middle East once the war is over.Officials of Saudi Arabia, a leader of the Arab world, are sharpening attacks on the Islamic Republic. Commentators in the United Arab Emirates, which suffered more Iranian missile and drone attacks than any country, including Israel, are berating Arabs for fetishizing the Palestinians over the Iranian menace. Bahrain is promoting a United Nations condemnation of Tehran.Lebanon named the Iranian ambassador a persona non grata on Wednesday. Iran responded by launching a ballistic missile at Beirut. Israel, though, is expressing disappointment over the Lebanese government’s failure to disarm Hezbollah after vowing to do so, and despite significant American military support for that purpose.“We reserve the right to take military actions if deemed necessary,” the Saudi foreign minister, Faisal bin Farhan, said recently. Yet like Beirut’s inaction, Riyadh is unlikely to join American-Israeli strikes on Iran.Physically attacking Iran “would be more provocative than I think the Crown Prince wants to be,” a frequent visitor to Riyadh who most recently was there in early February, Karen Elliott House, tells the Sun. “While he is said to be urging Trump to finish the job in Iran, without knowing yet whether the regime will survive, I doubt he’d want to strike Iran and have to live with the theocracy afterwards.”At the same time, Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman’s recent statements represent a significant shift in response to Iran’s attacks. On the eve of the war, the Saudi de-facto ruler publicly vowed to ban Americans from using bases in the kingdom to strike Iranian targets. Now American planes regularly take off from Saudi bases.The Iranian regime’s attacks on its neighboring Gulf states could create a new, American-led regional architecture, including a Saudi recognition of Israel, a goal long sought by Washington.“The war in Iran actually makes it more likely the kingdom will want to have diplomatic relations with Israel, assuming Jerusalem gives something in the Palestinian issue,” Ms. House, a former publisher of the Wall Street Journal, says. “This is clearly a time when Saudi Arabia needs to put Saudi interests first, so something short of a Palestinian state which the crown prince earlier demanded likely would suffice.”This week Bahrain, the Arab member of the UN Security Council, circulated a proposed resolution to create a multinational force to protect shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. The American-backed draft condemns the Islamic Republic as a “threat to international peace and security.” It is likely to be vetoed by Russia and Communist China, though, and France is resisting any mention of Iran.The Iran regime, though, is now seen as the region’s top menace, while Arabs increasingly see Israel as an ally. “If Iran wanted to divide the countries of this region, it united us instead,” Israel’s UN ambassador, Danny Danon, tells the Sun.Gulf states “will not forget how fellow Arab countries let it down, like always citing Palestine as a distraction,” a popular Emirati commentator, Jamal Al-Mulla, says. “When the shooting stops, I expect a few Gulf countries to rush to normalization with Israel. My money is on Kuwait, perhaps Saudi Arabia too.”Prince Mohamed, known as MbS, is sharpening criticism of the Islamic Republic. Tehran, he said in a videotaped message Wednesday, got $150 billion in sanctions relief “yet it did not build a single street, residential complex, or industrial facility for its citizens. Every dollar went toward launching missiles at Saudi Arabia and financing terrorist organizations across the world.”The crown prince added that beyond promoting Shiite terrorist Hezbollah and the Houthis, Tehran is now home to Sunni terrorists as well. Osama bin Laden’s son, he said, resides in Iran and is plotting to become the next Al Qaeda leader. Riyadh, he added, is “actively coordinating” with partners to protect the region and beyond from the “destructive ideology” of the Iranian regime. Some Gulf countries, in contrast, urge a soft line on Tehran. “Total annihilation is not an option,” Qatari foreign ministry spokesman, Majed al-Ansari, said Wednesday.Israel, though, is supplying many in the region with intelligence and logistics to fend off Iran’s attack. And although Doha has long supported Hamas, Qatar is one of them, public broadcaster Kan reports.

While Gulf Countries Are Unlikely To Join Battle, Their Rebuke of Iran Could Bode a New Mideast Architecture

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