Will Hollywood Bite Its Tongue at the Oscars?

Actors at the Academy Awards have never been shy about wading into politics. Way back at the 45th Oscars in 1973, Marlon Brando sent Sacheen Littlefeather in his place to decline his Best Actor award for “The Godfather” to protest Hollywood’s portrayal of Native Americans.More than 50 years later, when the Hollywood elite gathers Sunday at the 96th Oscars, will they get political even as American soldiers are in harm’s way half a world away? They will be sorely tempted to do so with President Trump back in office and the political temperature spiking. Yet somehow, the industry that loves nothing more than a microphone and a moral stance may actually keep it buttoned up this time.The last time a similar scenario came up was in 2003, when President George W. Bush had taken America to war with Iraq. Director Michael Moore stepped up to the microphone to accept his Oscar for “Bowling for Columbine” — a documentary about gun violence — and decided the moment called for something bigger.“We live in a time where we have a man sending us to war for fictitious reasons,” Mr. Moore told the crowd. The boos were immediate. Thunderous, even. “I decided to just keep going,” Mr. Moore recalled in The New York Times Magazine. “By this time, it’s a real test between who’s louder, the booers or the applause.”But if awards shows that have already taken place this year are any indication, there won’t be much political talk at the Oscars. Before Hollywood gets its turn, it’s worth noting that the awards season political experiment has already had a trial run — and the results were mixed at best.At February’s Grammy Awards, host Trevor Noah waded into Trump-Epstein territory with a wisecrack that did not go unnoticed at Mar-a-Lago. Mr. Trump fired back on Truth Social, calling Mr. Noah a “total loser” and threatening to “send his lawyers” over the joke.Whether the lawsuit ever materializes is another matter. What it showed, however, is that political humor — even the casual, late-night variety — now comes with a very real response risk.The Golden Globes in January were also comparatively mild. Mr. Trump’s name barely passed anyone’s lips on camera. Presenter Judd Apatow did mutter something about “a dictatorship,” and host Nikki Glaser took a swing at CBS News over its Paramount-era editorial shifts. But there was no Robert De Niro thundering from the podium, no Mark Ruffalo calling for revolution. By recent awards show standards, it was practically restrained.This year’s Oscar host, Conan O’Brien, seems to have absorbed all of the above and made a calculated choice: Don’t go there.“Hosting this show is a very thin line,” Mr. O’Brien said at a pre-show press conference. “We’re celebrating movies and the amazing people behind them, but it has to be funny without tipping into anger or politics.”He’s even scrapping Trump jokes entirely — not out of fear, but out of craft. As he told “The New Yorker Radio Hour,” the president has become “bad for comedy” because reality now outpaces satire. “When comedians get angry instead of clever, it doesn’t land.”Mr. O’Brien’s instinct is probably right. The Oscars audience may still lean left, but the producers are watching the ratings. The 2017 ceremony drew nearly 33 million viewers. By 2020, that number had collapsed to 23.6 million. Hollywood has noticed.Of course, intentions and outcomes are different things on Oscar night. Late night talk show host Jimmy Kimmel — one of television’s most liberal political voices — isn’t hosting this year, but he is presenting. He’ll get a rousing ovation no doubt, but will he go there yet again?Then there’s the matter of “Sinners,” the year’s most-nominated film with 16 nominations. When its winners start thanking people, a detour through the Trump era on race relations seems more than plausible.“One Battle After Another,” the frontrunner for Best Picture, tells the story of revolutionaries fighting U.S. forces over the fate of illegal aliens. If that film wins big, expect at least one immigration-themed speech — maybe three. And the outspoken star of the movie, Sean Penn, is favored to win for Best Actor, and he certainly has gone there in the past.But the list of presenters appears tame and not likely to get political: Rose Byrne, Nicole Kidman, Jimmy Kimmel, Delroy Lindo, Ewan McGregor, Wagner Moura, Pedro Pascal, Bill Pullman, Lewis Pullman, Channing Tatum and Sigourney Weaver, Will Arnett, Adrien Brody, Javier Bardem, Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Kieran Culkin, Robert Downey Jr., Chris Evans, Anne Hathaway, Chase Infiniti, Mikey Madison, Paul Mescal, Demi Moore, Kumail Nanjiani, Gwyneth Paltrow, Maya Rudolph and Zoe Saldaña.Perhaps they will follow the lead of Jane Fonda’s 1972 Oscar speech: “There’s a great deal to say, and I’m not going to say it tonight.”And perhaps they’ve also taken to heart the admonition delivered to the glitterati at the 2020 Golden Globes by host Ricky Gervais.“If you do win an award tonight, don’t use it as a platform to make a political speech, right? You’re in no position to lecture the public about anything. You know nothing about the real world,” he said. “So, if you win, right? Come up, accept your little award, thank your agent and your God, and f*** off.”

Will Hollywood Bite Its Tongue at the Oscars?

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