America is experiencing the largest one-year drop in the murder rate in its history and sizable drops in every other type of crime, leading to debate over who is to credit for the eye-popping statistics. 

According to the Real-Time Crime Index, run by data analyst Jeff Asher, America experienced 5,912 murders between January and October this year, down from 7,369 in the corresponding period in 2024. Since hitting a 10-year peak in 2021, the rate has fallen by record amounts for three straight years, says Mr. Asher, who ran the numbers on 570 metropolitan areas.

“A roughly 20 percent drop in murder in 2025, as is suggested by the current data, would be by far the largest decline ever recorded, eclipsing the decline in 2024 — currently pegged at 15 percent by the FBI but that’s subject to a likely upward revision next year,” he wrote on his Substack.

Among the largest 30 cities, Birmingham, Alabama, showed the most improvement with a reported 49 percent drop in the number of murders. Chicago — the site of a controversial National Guard deployment that was rejected by the Supreme Court this week — is claiming a 28.8 percent drop in murders this year.

Gun Violence Archive is also reporting a decline in the deadly use of weapons, reporting 14,302 murders, homicides, and unintentional deaths by guns as of Wednesday. With just a week left in the year, the final number should register significantly lower than the 16,725 gun-related homicides in 2024.

Mr. Asher reported that New Orleans is on pace for its fewest murders since 1970 while Detroit, Baltimore, Oakland, and Philadelphia are seeing their lowest numbers since the early 1960s.  San Francisco is on pace to have its fewest murders since 1942.

However, murder rates rose in four of the 30 largest cities: Ft. Worth, Kansas City, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles. 

The numbers presented by Mr. Asher, whose index has run close to federal reporting since 2018, are incomplete in that the jurisdictions he tracks represent about 115 million people and account for around half of all murders. But Mr. Asher, who runs real-time data from hundreds of agencies, said he’s confident the final numbers will be historic.

His index also recorded sizable drops in violent and property crime, numbers which will be validated by the FBI when it releases its formal report in the second half 2026. 

Among the reductions are a 23 percent decline in motor vehicle thefts, a 9 percent decline in thefts, and an 8 percent drop in aggravated assaults. Robberies and burglaries have dropped 18.3 percent and 14.8 percent respectively, year on year. 

While crime prevention falls primarily under the jurisdiction of local law enforcement agencies, federal officials are taking credit for the shift. 

“U.S. murders on pace for largest one-year drop on record — not an accident. @realDonaldTrump’s policy letting good cops be cops WORKS. Lives being saved every single day under this administration with great local partners across the country. And more work to do,” the FBI director, Kash Patel, wrote Wednesday.

“This is what happens when you mix a President with a vision of safer streets, with a team dedicated to implementing the vision. 

Talk is cheap, results matter,” added Mr. Patel’s deputy, Dan Bongino.

An economist and director of the Arkansas Center for Research in Economics at the University of Central Arkansas, Jeremy Horpedahl, said that while the news is good, it cannot be seen solely as a win by the administration. 
“Yes, crime declined dramatically in 2025. This is good news! But crime also declined dramatically in 2024, and conservatives said this was either fake news or no big deal,” Mr. Horpedahl posted.