Attacks in Moldova Breakaway State Spark Fears of Russian War Expansion

ATHENS — History shows that the smallest of states can generate the biggest of headlines, and right now that applies to minute Moldova — more specifically, the Russian-backed breakaway portion of it called Transnistria, where a series of attacks has left Europeans wondering if another front is about to open in Russia’s war on Ukraine. Like Moldova, slender Transnistria shares an eastern border with embattled Ukraine, and tensions that have been brewing for years are now on the brink of spilling over. The first attack happened on Monday, when rocket-propelled grenades were fired at the headquarters of the region’s state security ministry at Tiraspol, the Transnistrian capital on the eastern bank of the Dniester River. Then, a pair of explosions at a broadcasting facility on Tuesday morning knocked out two powerful antennas that were used for broadcasting Russian radio programs. It is unclear who initiated the attacks, but America has warned amid the war in Ukraine that Russia could launch false-flag attacks in nearby nations as a pretext for sending in troops.There are already about 1,500 Russian troops in Transnistria, but they have been stationed there for some time. Their presence was part of a cease-fire agreement reached in July 1992 following the region’s declaration of independence two years prior. Most of the breakaway state’s 470,000 people are Russian speakers, but they identify themselves as ethnically Moldovan, Ukrainian, or Russian.Ukrainian officials have expressed concern about Moscow using those forces to invade Ukraine from the west, while the threat of renewed fighting over Transnistria worries Moldovan authorities. The fear is that Russia will claim it needs to intervene to protect its troops or restore order, and as of Tuesday night this was escalating.Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence said that Russia is preparing missile strikes on Transnistrian civilian targets, citing fake messages sent to residents’ phones allegedly from the Armed Forces of Ukraine with advice to evacuate due to the planned missile strikes. There was no way to independently corroborate the Ukrainian claim, but fresh reports in Kremlin-backed state media lend it some credence. “The West is ready to destroy Moldova,” the RIA Novosti propaganda news agency said. The Russian tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda took it one step further, claiming: “The United States is trying to open a second front in Transnistria with the hands of Ukraine.” By equating the recent attacks in Transnistria to “similar provocations from from Ukraine in the Donetsk Republic in the last days before the start of the Russian special operation,” Komsomolskaya Pravda appears to be saying that more violence is on the way. What it will not say is that the source of any such escalation will likely be the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.Ukrainian missile strikes apparently targeted a Russian oil depot north of the Ukraine border on Monday and the Kremlin appeared to implicate Britain in that attack, which touched off a wild blaze. In a statement on Tuesday, Russia’s defense ministry said, “We would like to emphasize that London’s actions to provoke the Kyiv regime into taking such steps will immediately trigger our response should they decide to do it. As we have warned, Russia’s armed forces are ready to carry out strikes with high-precision, long-range weapons on the centers of decision-making in Kyiv.”For the Kremlin to single out Britain, a key NATO partner and a nuclear power, may be a first in Russia’s war on Ukraine and throws into unambiguous relief how it has already metastasized into a global conflict.Downing Street does have a role in the escalation, at least in terms of ratcheting up tensions. The Telegraph reported that the Russian ministry cited statements from Britain’s armed forces minister, James Heappey, who told BBC radio that it was entirely legitimate for Ukraine to hunt targets in the depths of Russia to disrupt logistics and supply lines. What all this means for Ukraine remains to be seen, but the tension is already mounting in Moldova, which as Mr. Putin is keenly aware is a former Soviet republic. France24 reported that following the series of explosions, the Moldovan president, Maia Sandu Sandu, said on Tuesday that the county’s Supreme Security Council had recommended that state agencies step up patrols and vehicle checks near the buffer zone with Transnistria, as well as tightening public safety measures and security checks on critical infrastructure.Also on Tuesday, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Andrei Rudenko, said that “certain forces” were turning Transnistria into a “hotbed of tension,” without specifying anything about those forces. The Telegraph reported that the head of Transnistria claimed the incidents could be traced back to Ukraine in a bid to drag his region into the conflict, but the much likelier scenario is that having pummeled much of eastern Ukraine, Mr. Putin is about to put on the squeeze from the west. With disinformation being one of the Kremlin’s most potent and toxic weapons, it is not inaccurate to say that a feared spillover of tensions has already begun.What will things look like on the Ukrainian side of the Dniester River by week’s end? Sometimes small Russian hints are louder than any headline.

Attacks in Moldova Breakaway State Spark Fears of Russian War Expansion

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