Know When To Hold Them, Or To Ditch Them

Country music star Kenny Rogers probably summed it up best in The Gambler when he sang, “You got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em, know when to walk away, know when to run.”In brief, the sloppy kickoff to the 2005 market is conveying a clear-cut message – namely, stocks could be in for a much tougher year than many experts think. Accordingly, the time is now, several pros say, for a portfolio housecleaning. In other words, ditch the dogs, those Rip Van Winkle stocks, which, because of varying problems, are apt to remain in a deep sleep or go down.According to a couple of analysts at the Complete Investor newsletter, investors should run from four stocks, including two which are being pushed as short sales (a bet their prices will fall).Analyst Tobias Crabtree kicks off with a couple of his dogs – communications companies Clear Channel Communications and OmniVision Technologies – each of whose shares have been pared or dumped by institutions that once took fair-sized positions in each. “Too much static and not enough upside,” is the way he describes the duo.In the case of Clear Channel, which owns 9% of all radio stations in the country, radio ad sales were for the birds in the latest reported month, rising a paltry 1%. Noting that the firm’s radio business has been persistently weak (it’s also engaged in outdoor advertising and live entertainment) and pointing to a $3.6 million decline in third quarter radio revenues, the analyst had been anticipating an upside surprise in radio earnings, which hasn’t materialized. Of further concern, he observes, Clear Channel is no longer one of Fidelity Magellan’s 25 top holdings.As for OmniVision, a maker of cell phone cameras, the stock fell sharply midyear because of delays in releasing its financial reports but has since rebounded, rising nearly 100% from its 52-week low of $9 reached last August. Of concern to Mr. Crabtree is his belief that much of future production and sales growth projections are already priced into the stock. The analyst discovered the stock in April 2004 as a holding of the Bjurman Berry All Cap Growth Fund, which has since disposed of its stake, an action he also took.Two additional stocks viewed by the newsletter as ripe for housecleaning – Learning Tree and Utah Medical – are both rated potential short sales by analyst Genia Turanova.In the case of Learning Tree, which provides education and training to information technology professionals and to business and government managers – about 80% of revenues come from tech courses – the company faces stiff competition from a host of lower-cost providers. Further, in its latest quarter, the company failed to meet Wall Street expectations, earning just a penny a share, versus 8 cents a year earlier. Likewise, management expects revenues in the first quarter of fiscal 2005 to be lower than they were a year ago. Pointing to a sky-high price-earnings multiple of 524.3, Ms. Turanova views the stock, which closed Friday at $15.73, as a “compelling short” with an eventual target of $9.As for Utah Medical, which manufactures a wide range of medical and health care devices, the analyst notes that, on the surface, things look fine, given third-quarter earnings growth and a reasonable multiple (9.6). But this belies, Ms. Turanova points out, that the company is having significant problems with the Food and Drug Administration, which this past summer filed a lawsuit against Utah Medical, charging it with violations of regulations designed to ensure production quality standards.What’s most troubling, observes Ms. Turanova, isn’t the lawsuit itself, since the FDA has previously charged other companies with failing to meet federal manufacturing standards. Rather, she explains, what’s worrisome is that Utah Medical seems determined to ignore the issue; as late as mid-November, it issued a press release stating that all of its products were safe, in effect disregarding the FDA’s complaint that it’s the manufacturing process, not the products themselves, that’s in doubt. The company, notes Ms. Turanova, has until May to answer the charges in court, and if it isn’t successful, it faces being shut down.

Know When To Hold Them, Or To Ditch Them

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