So thirsty had been the Kerry campaign for adverse news on the economy – what with the 5% annual growth rates and 250,000 jobs a month added to payrolls – that it was practically jubilant in June. Traditionally the cruelest month for statisticians performing the difficult work of seasonally adjusting their data, June numbers wilted a little. The press is back to talking about the bad economy, and Senator Kerry is drawing mental pictures of U-turns.

Their glee is a little premature. First, initial estimates of economic activity at the beginning of summer are about as ephemeral as first drafts of Kerry policy statements. It may not come as a surprise to you to hear that people take off from work in June and the economy shifts into a more relaxed mode. How much of that is downturn and how much is summer siesta is a tough question.

Second, the numbers weren’t actually bad. One of the ways to lie with statistics is to use numbers that move further and further from reality. For example, “consumer spending slowed last month.” That statement doesn’t tell us how much consumers spent last month, or even the month before. It only tells us the relation between the two months. Did it go from low to very low? Or did it go from unsustainably high to merely high? A great deal of coverage for the past couple of weeks has played as trouble the shift in economic activity from rocket-sled pace down to hot-rod pace.

Third, those estimates are already beginning to be supplanted by a new wave of strong summer numbers. Industrial production is rising rapidly; housing has shocked even the optimists, and Rubinomics has taken it on the jaw yet again by another series of declines in long-term interest rates despite the budget deficits, which may reflect the facts that despite the size of the deficits in absolute terms they are, in relative terms, modest in contrast to the overall size of the economy.

Fourth, the central premise of Mr. Kerry’s indictment of the president was contradicted last week by a release of new data. Tuesday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its new wage and salary figures. As of the latest data – July – average wages and salaries are growing above the rate of inflation. That’s because inflation is starting to fall again. Real average weekly earnings are up 0.42% while the consumer price index is down .05%.Since January 2001, wages are up 9.04% and the consumer price index is up 7.8%.

So much for the “worst economy since Herbert Hoover.” No doubt that if you torture the data long enough you can make them confess to anything. So far this year wages and salaries have lagged slightly – $48 a year – behind inflation. But that $48 real-earnings loss is much smaller than the Bush tax cut. In other words, workers are losing about $50 bucks in payroll in 2004, but workers in even the lowest income tax brackets have gotten back $300 dollars in tax cuts every year since 2001.

The Kerry spin on wages suffers from a deeper problem than just data mining. It ignores the fact that Americans are owners now, and their income is no longer limited to a paycheck. It’s a little like the debate over jobs: jobs are down since President Bush took the oath, but only if you don’t count the self-employed. Likewise, you can pick some date ranges that show that wages are down slightly this year, but that’s not counting interest, dividends, rent, consulting and sole-proprietorship income.

When you include such sources, income growth has far outpaced inflation: in the past month, in the past six months, in the past year and in the past three years. That’s true in aggregate and on per capita basis. If you’re looking for bad news, it is available. Not in the American data, but in the democratic left’s new Eurotopia. Industrial production slowed last month in the Euro-zone, especially in Germany. Maybe anti-American protests are bad for business.