Erdogan Dreams of an Ottoman Grandeur

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s vision of an Islamic and Turkic empire is being helped by the Islamic Republic of Iran’s weakness. Will a disruptive Ankara become the new Tehran?Seeking leverage everywhere, Turkey is sending tentacles around the world. Near its border, Ankara is backing the Islamist President Ahmed al-Sharaa of Syria and is hoping to become a power broker in the Washington-envisioned new Gaza. In the last two years Israel weakened Tehran-backed proxies that Iran has built up for decades. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran itself — all are a shadow of their past power. Jerusalem, though, increasingly fears that Hamas-supporting Turkey will duplicate Iran’s “ring of fire” strategy to surround Israel with enemies. Hamas “clearly demonstrated its commitment to peace,” Mr. Erdogan said recently, adding that for two years Israel “went beyond what Hitler did in terms of genocide.” Such rhetoric is increasingly echoed among Turkey’s allied Islamist regimes. Saudi Arabia, once skeptical of Turkey’s influence, is increasingly turning its back on moderate reforms that characterized its recent policies. Qatar, which has long been an Islamist flag bearer, is tightening its alliance with Turkey. Ankara helped Pakistan with arms in its war with India last year. Additionally, Turkey is building military bases in Somalia, on the Horn of Africa’s entrance to the Red Sea — while Israel recognizes rival Somaliland. Ankara supports Islamist fighters in the bloody war in Sudan and arms both sides in the Libyan civil war. Mr. Erdogan’s dream of reviving the Ottoman Empire more than a century after its demise in World War I is “propaganda, but it’s also realpolitik,” a former Department of State official, Alberto Fernandez, tells the Sun. “It doesn’t mean that Turkey is going to conquer the world but, certainly, it wants to project power and influence, especially in the lands of Islam — especially in the historic territories that it had — but whenever and wherever it can.”Turkey is building alliances even in places that are non-Sunni, such as selling arms to Azairbijan, which is a non-Islamist Shiite country, but is populated with ethnic Turkic people. Then there is the non-Islamic, non-Turkic regime of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, to which Mr. Erdogan helped cultivate the narcotic tradeAmericaPresident Trump, though, never seems to be angry with his “friend,” Mr. Erdogan. “It’s frustrating,” a Turkey watcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Cinan Ciddi, tells the Sun. “No matter what Erdogan says or does, it doesn’t seem to sort of move the needle, even if it seems to be sort of moving against U.S. interests,” as in Mr. Erdogan’s ties with Mr. Maduro. Ankara is playing both fireman and arsonist in its relations with the West, Mr. Fernandez, who now serves as vice president of the Middle East Media Research Institute, says. Islamists, like Turkey, he says, “are the most pragmatic people in the world. People in the West don’t understand that they will make all kinds of temporary alliances, or cease fires, or pauses all the time — and they know that they’ll break them later.”Internal PoliticsDamascus assault on Syrian Kurds last week has created political complications for Mr. Erdogan. Last year the long-time jailed leader of the Kurdish Workers Party, Abdullah Ocalan, announced that his faction, known as the PKK, would lay down its weapons. Now Turkish Kurds are angry, which could undo Mr. Erdogan’s efforts to get Kurdish voters to his side. Rather than a hoped-for realignment, Kurds are now desecrating Turkish flags, while Turks bar Kurdish soccer players from stadiums, the founder of the United Nations-based Envoy Magazine, Razi Canikligil, tells the Sun on a call from Ankara.In addition, the former Turkish journalist says, there is growing anger at Mr. Erdogan for jailing his top political rival, former Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. “A lot of Erdogan supporters are upset, and it’s building up because it’s been so long that guy has been in jail, and he did nothing wrong.” SyriaOne year after Mr. Sharaa, with heavy Turkish support, wrested power away from President Bashar Assad, America seems to back the former jihadist to the hilt. The role of the Kurds in fighting ISIS, “has largely expired,” Mr. Barrack wrote on X as Mr. Sharaa’s forces assaulted Kurdish bases. Incarcerated ISIS fighters were set free. The assault against Kurdish positions repeated last year’s attacks by forces loyal to Mr. Sharaa against Alawite and Druze communities in south and western Syria. Israel came to the aid of its Druze allies. Now, though, Israelis are increasingly concerned about Turkey’s role in Syria.Last week Turkish engineers installed an advanced radar system at Damascus airport, ostensibly to modernize the field’s civilian capabilities. Israelis, though, are concerned that the radar, controlled by hostile Turkish operators, could interfere with their airforce maneuvering over Syrian skies. Additionally, members of an extremist militant Turkish group, the IHH, are observed near the Golan Heights border, raising the prospect of direct confrontation with Israeli forces. GazaWashington is pressuring Israel to include Hamas-supporting Turkey and Qatar in the group that oversees the Strip’s reclamation. “Trump is using a fairy tale, that Turkey and Qatar helped in the efforts to release hostages, to pressure Israel to accept their presence in Gaza,” the founder of MEMRI, Yigal Carmon, tells the Sun. “If Bibi agrees, he would lose his premiership.” Mr. Erdogan’s professed dreams of global grandeur fit well with the Mideast’s new realities. Yet his alliance with Islamists is being matched by Israel’s tightened relations with Somaliland, Greece, and Cyprus. Will Mr. Trump’s balancing act prevent a direct confrontation?

Erdogan Dreams of an Ottoman Grandeur

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