How Xi Jinping Will Mousetrap the Red Chinese Central Committee

Behind closed doors within the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Monday, the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will hold its Sixth Plenary Session. It is expected to adopt the “Third Historical Resolution,” setting the stage for President Xi Jinping’s reelection to a new five-year term.Despite having already eliminated presidential term limits, Mr. Xi, 68, now exceeds the age of mandatory retirement for members of the Politburo. Yet few doubt Mr. Xi’s reelection as president is a fait accompli. The forthcoming resolution will seek to emphasize Xi’s indispensability in order to waive the customary retirement age.Both previous “Historical Resolutions” emerged at epochal moments. They served to reinterpret Party history in support of the presiding paramount leader’s continued tenure. In 1981, struggling to move China beyond Maoism’s failed social and economic policies, the Second Historical Resolution condemned the “mistakes” of Mao’s Cultural Revolution.That cleared the way for Deng Xiaoping and his brainchild, “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics.” Later, in defense of his new policy, Deng famously quipped: “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.” Deng argued that his economic system’s practicality was of greater importance than its ideological features.Now facing his greatest political hurdle to date, Mr. Xi need only crib Deng’s praxis to consolidate his power. So Mr. Xi will likely go on to frame his own political opponents as enemies of the state and, as the last man standing, assert his extended tenure is essential to China’s future.Just as Deng’s resolution began by repudiating Mao’s misguided Cultural Revolution and those responsible, Mr. Xi too will need first go on a rhetorical offensive to discredit preemptively those who might object to his power play. Naturally, Mr. Xi’s primary targets are political opponents.Mr. Xi will likely contend that “rotten elements” threaten “party unity” and make calls to ramp up investigations by the internal discipline unit. Such an effort would actually aim to neuter associates of the “Shanghai Clique,” allies of Jiang Zemin, who served as president in the decade that ended in March 2003. Since extending Mr. Xi’s tenure beyond 2022 would arrest the development of Sixth Generation leadership, rising high fliers might discover their wings clipped.Also, Mr. Xi’s rhetoric is likely to target China’s newly-minted billionaires and tech entrepreneurs such as Tencent, Alibaba, and DiDi, who until only recently operated under the auspices of the administration in edging out foreign corporations. Mr. Xi is likely to deride “excessive income” as threatening the 2035 Common Prosperity goal and call for increased “charitable giving.”He is also likely to urge rededication to “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era.” On the international level, the resolution’s argument is likely to proceed in a similar fashion — rhetorically disqualifying Mr. Xi’s enemies in order that China’s vision wins by default.While America and Taiwan almost surely will be denounced, and the resolution might underscore “Reunification” as the penultimate prerequisite for achieving “National Rejuvenation” by 2049, it is unlikely Mr. Xi will provide significant additional specificity on the matter — he likely also wishes to keep the Taiwan card in his back pocket for the hypothetical day when political pressures might force his ouster.Finally, after having rhetorically delegitimized China’s international adversaries, the resolution is expected to market Mr. Xi’s alternative model to the current American-led international order, what he refers to as “Building a Community With a Shared Future For Mankind.”That Mr. Xi’s sycophants will adopt the 3rd Historical Resolution is inevitable. The Central Committee will condemn Mr. Xi’s enemies, trumpet Mr. Xi’s contributions, and most importantly, with no viable alternative candidate available, they will be forced to conclude the Politburo’s customary retirement age ought be waived, if not simply ignored, for Mr. Xi.So Mr. Xi’s last obstacle for reelection at the 20th Party Congress will undoubtedly be eliminated. Moreover, perhaps in truly Orwellian-fashion even Deng’s quotation will be reworked to read: “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is old or young, as long as it catches mice.”________Mr. Lenczycki is a political journalist, China watcher, and former professor of Mandarin and East Asian civilizations. @LenczyckiPhilip.

How Xi Jinping Will Mousetrap the Red Chinese Central Committee

How Xi Jinping Will Mousetrap the Red Chinese Central Committee

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