House Prospects Dimming for Republicans

Seven weeks from Election Day, the Cook Political Report has joined a growing group of forecasters now predicting that Republicans will win a much narrower House majority in the midterms than was expected only a few months ago.Cook now has pushed three more races in the Democrats’ favor, suggesting they will hold a total of 192 seats and Republicans 212 when all the votes are counted.A newly released Power Ranking from Fox News projected that Republicans will win a 13-seat majority in the House, which is down from an August forecast that said the GOP would likely win a 22-seat majority.Models maintained by Decision Desk HQ have put five additional House seats in the Democrats’ column over the past month. Decision Desk now puts the odds of Democrats winning the House at 22 percent.One of the most aggressive House forecasts is coming from the Economist, which gives Democrats a 35 percent chance of retaining the House; it forecasts them winning 213 seats to the GOP’s 221.For the sake of comparison, FiveThirtyEight in 2016 gave President Trump a 29 percent chance of winning the presidency.Although the “fundamentals” of the race — 2022’s status as a midterm election and the state of the economy, among other things — work against Democrats, there are also factors in their favor.While there has been some speculation about whether polls are overestimating support for Democrats, as they did in 2016 and 2020, it is impossible to know for sure until after the election.Certain topics, like Mr. Trump’s legal dramas and the post-Dobbs decision abortion climate, which have been dominate news cycles, are losing issues for Republicans. There are also recent instances where Democrats have outperformed expectations, such as in Representative Mary Peltola’s victory in Alaska or in the Democratic victory at New York’s 19th district.These special elections have hinted at what could happen in November. In Alaska, Ms. Peltola enjoys a leg up in one of the most competitive districts this year because Republicans have failed to consolidate around a single candidate.In other races, Republicans are hamstrung by some of the same problems that they have in their senatorial efforts, at least in the opinion of a politics and public policy analyst at the University of Michigan, Jonathan Hanson.He says that in many races, Republican candidates are struggling to fundraise because they’re seen as extreme or simply weak.He points to Michigan’s 3rd district, a seat held by Representative Peter Mejier, a Republican who voted to impeach Mr. Trump.“It’s a good example of this broader phenomenon” of candidates who “are fully into the MAGA movement and the traditional Republican donors are not willing to promote them,” Mr. Hanson tells the Sun.Democrats there helped elevate a GOP candidate seen as more extreme and more associated with Mr. Trump, John Gibbs, than his Republican opponents. In doing so, Democrats seized on an opportunity that has developed even without the party’s input across many toss-up House races: They are able to present a candidate perceived as more moderate.“Voters are presented with a choice of a more extreme Republican or a more mainstream Democrat,” Mr. Hanson says. “It’s weighing on independents, and Republicans are not so keen on the direction their party is going.”Take Colorado’s 8th district, which most forecasters see as one of the most competitive toss-up districts in the country, with a slight Republican edge. The district crosses through parts of Denver and Boulder and areas in between and around the two cities. In the newly created district, a Republican state senator, Barbara Kirkmeyer, will face off against a pediatrician and Democratic state representative, Yadira Caraveo.While Ms. Kirkmeyer seems to have a slight advantage, campaign finances tell a different story: She has about a third of Dr. Caraveo’s funding — $400,000 compared to nearly $1.2 million, according to quarterly FEC filings.In small individual contributions, Ms. Kirkmeyer has raised $370,000 compared to Dr. Caraveo’s more than $900,000, suggesting that voters in the district might be more enthused about Dr. Caraveo.Ms. Kirkmeyer has been embroiled in criticism for once pushing for parts of Colorado to secede from the state and for voting against the state’s most recent reproductive rights legislation. Dr. Caraveo, on the other hand, passed through her primary unscathed.New York’s 22nd district follows this same trend. Running through central New York, it will see businessman Brandon Williams, a Republican, run against a Pentagon policy advisor, Francis Conole, a Democrat.Although the previous representatives of the area were Republicans, President Biden would have carried the newly drawn district by eight points in the 2020 election.Mr. Conole maintains a fundraising lead in the race, raking in more than $1 million compared to the roughly $200,000 raised by Mr. Williams.Mr. Williams made it to the general election by winning from the right in a primary against an establishment GOP nominee, Steven Wells, and he doesn’t currently live in the district. Mr. Conole, on the other hand, is seen as a moderate Democrat despite attempts to paint him as a radical leftist. There has been no public polling of the district.Ohio’s 9th district, along the shores of Lake Erie in the northwest corner of the state, is widely agreed to be a toss-up district. A Republican veteran, James Richard Majewski, will compete with Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat. The historically deep-blue district was supposedly made more competitive by redistricting; it is now seen as a toss-up with only a slight Democratic advantage.Ms. Kaptur maintains a fundraising advantage, with nearly $1.8 million in the bank compared to Mr. Majewski’s $457,000. Both have raised most of their money via individual contributions.Ms. Kaptur is a middle-of-the-road Democrat who has served in the House since 1982. Mr. Majewski has fully embraced Trump-style politics, violated personal finance disclosure laws, and lied about serving in Afghanistan.While none of these races guarantee that Democrats will take the House or or even have an advantage at the moment, forecasts are likely to start better reflecting the situation in these races as Election Day approaches.As the creator of FiveThirtyEight’s model explains, his model is “slowly scaling back its skepticism” of Democratic improvements, because it is designed to be conservative in moving away from historic norms “at this point in the cycle.”

House Prospects Dimming for Republicans

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