For much of its short, turbulent existence, LIV Golf has projected unwavering confidence in its approach and ability to stand as a legitimate rival to the PGA Tour. Backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, the upstart league arrived with unprecedented capital, grand ambitions, and a disruptive vision that promised to shake professional golf to its core.

However, entering its fifth year, LIV Golf finds itself defined not by how many stars it can lure, but by a more sobering and consequential question: Can it keep them?

The question became obvious on December 23 when Brooks Koepka, a five-time major champion, became the first prominent name to announce he is abandoning the Saudi-backed league. Mr. Koepka, 35, said he based his decision on family considerations and a desire to stay closer to home, but the announcement reverberated far beyond personal circumstances.

Mr. Koepka, the 2023 PGA Champion, is among a handful of golfers whose presence lent credibility to the new tour, while many of the early additions like Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Sergio Garcia and Bubba Watson brought name recognition but are now living off past glory. Mr. Koepka remains in his competitive prime and isn’t far removed from being one of the best golfers in the world. His exit reignites one of the PGA Tour’s most divisive debates, how to handle returning LIV players.

The prevailing assumption is that players who left the PGA Tour for LIV Golf and seek to return face potential suspensions, though the length and extent of penalties remain unclear.

Informal discussions have already begun regarding Mr. Koepka’s reinstatement, creating the prospect of a clear and permanent pathway for others who return from LIV to the PGA Tour. Bill Horschel, a vocal PGA Tour member, said he believes more departures from LIV will follow and some will be welcomed back by the PGA Tour, which has added player equity and millions more in prize money to its business model.

“At the very beginning I think I was on the side of there needs to be more punishment for these guys,” Mr. Horschel said at the Palm Beach Gardens opener of the  indoor Tomorrow’s Golf League season. “And now I’m on the side that I think for the betterment of the game, for the quality of the PGA Tour product to continue to grow … bringing Brooks back does add value.”

Mr. Koepka received a reported $125 million to sign with LIV and earned $40 million in prize money. But the league has struggled to gain traction, especially in the United States where television ratings have lagged and LIV golfers don’t qualify for the world golf rankings. Mr. Horschel believes Mr. Koepka’s departure could be just the beginning.

“It may continue with guys over the next handful of years if the contracts that they expect isn’t there and they’re like, ‘I made my money, I want to go back to the PGA Tour and compete for real championships and a little bit more meaning in golf than just the financial side,’ ” he said.

Mr. Koepka’s first step is to reapply for membership in the PGA Tour, which could then reinstate him at any time. Beyond that, clarity is scarce; opinions vary on what penalties, if any, there should be.

“It’s going to be a mixed bag,” said a two-time major winner, Xander Schauffele. “Depending on who you interview, what point in their career they are, where they sit in the standings, what the world ranking is, you’re going to get an array of different answers. It’s going to be hard to make everybody happy. But do we need everyone to come back together? Absolutely.”

Could other golfers leave LIV?

What happens with Mr. Koepka will be monitored closely by golfers on both tours, particularly Bryson DeChambeau. At times a staunch supporter of LIV Golf and one of the league’s most visible and marketable players, Mr. DeChambeau has not committed to LIV Golf beyond the end of his contract in 2026.  While he has publicly praised the new LIV Golf CEO, Scott O’Neil, Mr. DeChambeau, a two-time U.S. Open champion, insisted without being specific, “things have to improve.”

Mr. DeChambeau suggested he would monitor Mr. Koepka’s potential return to see whether the PGA Tour establishes a permanent procedure for reinstating players or treats him as a special exemption. “If they’re going to be doing it by the book, they should do it by the book and not give any special exemption,” Mr. DeChambeau said. “But if there’s a special exemption, it definitely opens the doors for others to do the same.”

Mr. DeChambeau, whose YouTube channel is growing in popularity, said negotiations on renewing his own contract with LIV are continuing. “We have to get to a place where both parties have a good understanding of one another,” he said, adding, “I think that can happen, but you never know.”

The LIV Golf roster isn’t as impressive as it once was. Messrs. Mickelson,  Johnson, Garcia and Watson are all former major champions who appear past their prime. Patrick Reed, Martin Kaymer, Cameron Smith and Charl Schwartzel, who also won major championships, are not engaging personalities that attract mainstream attention, especially in America.

With Mr. Koepka gone, the only two golfers considered among the best in the game are Mr. DeChambeau and Jon Rahm, a two-time U.S. Open winner.  If Mr. DeChambeau leaves after 2026, LIV golf would lose not only a star but a bridge to younger, digitally savvy fans, a demographic the league has aggressively targeted.

LIV Golf in 2026

Since its inception, LIV Golf has presented itself as a league that would disrupt the traditional format to make it more appealing to fans. Players wore shorts, music blared throughout the golf course, and instead of playing 72 holes with everyone starting from the same tee, LIV Golf tournaments were 54 holes with no cuts and featured a shotgun start in which everyone begins at the same time on different holes around the course.

But the league that once prided itself on innovation is seeking more conformity. The 54-hole format became a liability, making the participants ineligible to earn points in the Official World Golf rankings. That pushes top players like Mr. DeChambeau and Mr. Rahm down the list and makes it almost impossible for other players to qualify for major championships.

To address the situation, LIV announced a significant pivot. Events will expand to 72 holes this year to align more closely with the PGA Tour and major championships. The shotgun starts and team competition will remain, but the move signals recognition that conformity, not disruption, may be necessary for survival.

Mr. Rahm applauded the change to a four-day event, which should help the league in its bid to reapply for OWGR points. “Moving to 72 holes is the logical next step that strengthens the competition, tests us more fully, and if the growing galleries from last season are any indication, delivers more of what the fans want.”

LIV golfers also were required to wear long pants beginning in 2025.

Did LIV Golf get Trumped?

President Trump was one of LIV Golf’s biggest supporters early on, hosting LIV tournaments at his golf courses in New Jersey and at Doral in Miami.  But after four years in South Florida there will be no LIV Golf at Doral this season or the foreseeable future. The PGA Tour is returning to Trump National Doral for the first time since 2016 when it hosts the $20 million Cadillac Championship in May.

“We appreciate the support of Cadillac as we bring a new era of the PGA Tour to our fans in Miami,” the CEO of the PGA Tour, Brian Rolapps, said.

LIV Golf, meanwhile, has expanded its schedule to 13 events, but its American stops have dropped to five from six, including LIV Golf Virginia at Trump National DC in May, and a new tournament in New Orleans that is expected to draw 40,000 to 60,000 spectators.

Governor Jeff Landry calls it a win “for all Louisianans,” citing the jobs created to set up the event.

Yet, with the bulk of its events outside of the United States, LIV Golf is focusing less on overtaking the PGA Tour in America and more on carving out a global niche. 

The season begins February 4 at Riyadh Golf Club in Saudi Arabia, a reminder of the league’s origins and enduring financial backing. But as Mr. Koepka’s departure makes it clear, money and disruption does not guarantee permanence.  Entering its fifth season, LIV Golf  is closer to being a costly experiment than a true rival to the PGA Tour.