The Adler Guide to Election Night

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

This is an hour-by-hour guide to watching the election returns tomorrow night. The projected electoral totals are based on estimates for when the states will be called for either President Bush or Senator Kerry. Some states, such as Pennsylvania, are expected to be very close, without a clear winner until later in the evening when most of the state’s precincts have been counted. Other states, including Florida, may not have a clear winner until well after midnight.


6 P.M.
POLLS CLOSE: Indiana and Kentucky
PROJECTED BUSH WINS: Indiana and Kentucky
KEY SENATE RACES: Incumbent Senator Bunning of Kentucky has been facing a closer-than-expected challenge from his Democratic challenger, Daniel Mongiardo, but the Republican is holding a relatively slim lead in the polls. There is a slight possibility of a pickup for the Democrats.


PROJECTED ELECTORAL TOTALS:


BUSH: 19
KERRY: 0
NO PROJECTED WINNER: 0


7 P.M.
POLLS CLOSE: Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and most of Florida and New Hampshire.
PROJECTED BUSH WINS: Georgia and South Carolina
PROJECTED KERRY WINS: Vermont
TOO CLOSE TO PROJECT: Mr. Bush will probably be leading in Virginia, but it will be too early in the evening to make a projection for either Virginia or New Hampshire. It is assumed that Florida will be so close that a winner will not be known until after midnight, but if one of the candidates is declared the winner in Florida earlier in the evening, it is a strong sign that that candidate will win the election.


KEY SENATE RACES: FLORIDA There is a very close race in Florida between Betty Castor, a Democrat, and Mel Martinez, a Republican, to fill the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Graham, a Democrat. This seat is a possible pickup for the Republicans. SOUTH CAROLINA Jim DeMint, a Republican, is leading Democrat Inez Tenenbaum in the race to succeed retiring Senator Hollings, a Democrat. This seat is a likely pickup for the Republicans. GEORGIA Republican John Isakson is expected to defeat Denise Majette, a Democrat, in the race to succeed Senator Miller, a Democrat. This seat is also a likely pickup for the Republicans.


PROJECTED ELECTORAL TOTALS:


BUSH: 42
KERRY: 3
NO PROJECTED WINNER: 44 (FL, NH & VA)


7:30 P.M.
POLLS CLOSE: Ohio, West Virginia, and most of North Carolina.
TOO CLOSE TO PROJECT: All three states should be too close to project a winner yet. We are assuming that Ohio, like Florida, will not be decided until after midnight. Again, if one of the candidates is declared an early winner in Ohio, it is a strong indication that that candidate will win the election.


KEY SENATE RACES: NORTH CAROLINA Erskine Bowles, a Democrat, is in a close race with Republican Richard Burr to fill the seat being vacated by Senator Edwards. This is a possible pickup for the Republicans.


PROJECTED ELECTORAL TOTALS:


BUSH 42
KERRY 3
NO PROJECTED WINNER: 84 (FL, OH, NC, VA, WV & NH)


8 P.M.
POLLS CLOSE: Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Illinois, Kansas, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Maine.
PROJECTED BUSH WINS: Kansas, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee, and Texas.
PROJECTED KERRY WINS: Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Illinois.
TOO CLOSE TO PROJECT: The races in Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Maine should be too close to be projected when polls close. Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and West Virginia should still also be too close to call.


KEY SENATE RACES: ILLINOIS Democrat Barack Obama is expected to defeat Alan Keyes, a Republican, handily to fill the seat being vacated by Republican Senator Fitzgerald. This is a likely pickup for the Democrats. OKLAHOMA There is a tight race to fill the vacancy created by the retirement of Senator Nickles, a Republican. Democrat Brad Carson has a slight possibility of defeating Thomas Coburn, a Republican.


PROJECTED ELECTORAL TOTALS:


BUSH 115
KERRY 59
NO PROJECTED WINNER: 152 (FL, OH, NC, VA, WV, NH, MI, NJ, PA, MO, ME)


8:30 P.M.
POLLS CLOSE: Arkansas
PROJECTED BUSH WINS: Networks may now be able to project Mr. Bush the winner in North Carolina and Virginia.
TOO CLOSE TO PROJECT: Arkansas


PROJECTED ELECTORAL TOTALS:


BUSH 161
KERRY 59
NO PROJECTED WINNER: 112 (FL, OH, NC, VA, WV, NH, MI, NJ, PA, MO, ME & AR)


9 P.M.
POLLS CLOSE: New York, Rhode Island, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Wyoming.
PROJECTED BUSH WINS: West Virginia, Louisiana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming. Projected Kerry wins: New York and Rhode Island
TOO CLOSE TO PROJECT: Mr. Bush should be leading in Arizona and Colorado; Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Mexico look like toss-ups. Florida, Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maine, and Arkansas should still be too close to project a winner at this point.


KEY SENATE RACES: SOUTH DAKOTA In South Dakota, Senate Majority Leader Daschle is being challenged by a former congressman, John Thune, a Republican. Polls show a dead heat, although this is a potential pickup for the Republicans. COLORADO Polls show a close senatorial race between State Attorney General Ken Salazar, a Democrat, and Republican Peter Coors to fill the vacancy created by the retirement of Ben Nighthorse Campbell, a Republican. This is a potential pickup for Democrats. LOUISIANA This race is to fill the open seat created by the retirement of Senator Breaux, a Democrat. Republican David Vitter is expected to get the most votes but will face a run-off with either Christopher John or John Kennedy, both Democrats, if Mr. Vitter fails to get 50% or more. This is a possible pickup for the Republicans.


PROJECTED ELECTORAL TOTALS:


BUSH: 168
KERRY: 94
NO PROJECTED WINNER: 169 (FL, OH, NC, VA, WV, NH, MI, NJ, PA, MO, ME, AR, AZ, CO, MN, WI, VA)


10 P.M.
POLLS CLOSE: North Dakota, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Iowa.
PROJECTED BUSH WINS: North Dakota, Idaho, Montana, and Utah. Mr. Bush should now also be projected to win Missouri and Arkansas.
PROJECTED KERRY WINS: Mr. Kerry should now be projected to win Maine, Michigan, and New Jersey.
TOO CLOSE TO PROJECT: Iowa should be close, but Mr. Bush may have a slight lead. Mr. Bush should be leading in Nevada, but it could be too close to project a winner. Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Iowa should still be too close to project a winner.


PROJECTED ELECTORAL TOTALS:


BUSH: 200
KERRY: 134
NO PROJECTED WINNER: 124 (FL, OH, NH, PA, AZ, CO, MN, WI, NV & IA)


11 P.M.
POLLS CLOSE: California, Washington, Hawaii, and Oregon
PROJECTED BUSH WINS: Mr. Bush should now be projected the winner in Arizona and Colorado.
PROJECTED KERRY WINS: California and Washington. Mr. Kerry may also be projected the winner in Pennsylvania.
TOO CLOSE TO PROJECT: Oregon should be close, but Mr. Kerry should be leading. Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Hawaii and Iowa should still be too close to project a winner.


PROJECTED ELECTORAL TOTALS:


BUSH: 219
KERRY: 217
NO PROJECTED WINNER: 99 (FL, OH, NH, MN, WI, NV, NM, IA, OR, HI)


MIDNIGHT
POLLS CLOSE: Alaska. All polls in America are now closed.
PROJECTED BUSH WINS: Alaska. Mr. Bush should also now be projected winner in Nevada and Iowa.
PROJECTED KERRY WINS: Mr. Kerry should now be projected the winner in Oregon.
TOO CLOSE TO PROJECT: Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Hawaii should still be too close to project a winner.


KEY SENATE RACES: ALASKA Democrat Tony Knowles has been leading incumbent Senator Murkowski, a Republican, who was appointed by her father, Governor Murkowski. This could be a potential pickup for the Democrats.


PROJECTED ELECTORAL TOTALS:


BUSH 227
KERRY 224
NO PROJECTED WINNER: 87 (FL, IA, OH, NH, MN, WI, NM & HI)


Given the closeness of the races in the toss-up states – Florida, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Hawaii – predicting a winner is little more than guesswork. Nonetheless, if we assume Mr. Bush wins New Mexico and Mr. Kerry wins New Hampshire, as some recent polls show, Mr. Bush would be leading 232 to 228. If we also assume that traditionally Democratic Hawaii goes to Mr. Kerry, the race would be tied 232 to 232. The election would then come down to Florida, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. According to recent polls, Mr. Bush has been holding a slight lead in Florida and Mr. Kerry has been gaining in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Thus, if Mr. Bush won Florida and Mr. Kerry won Wisconsin and Minnesota, Mr. Bush would be leading 259-252. Iowa’s seven electoral votes would then be irrelevant, and the entire election would hinge on Ohio. In a survey of 2,880 Ohio voters released by the Columbus Dispatch yesterday, Messrs. Bush and Kerry were tied 50-50 with Mr. Kerry leading by 8 votes out of 2,880. If Ohio is indeed that close, we may not know who the winner is for several days, until the provisional ballots are counted. Tomorrow night (and probably Wednesday morning) should be a great example of democracy in action.


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