The Adler Report
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

An analysis of recent statewide and national polls shows President Bush continuing to lead in the race to chalk up electoral votes, but the election continues to be too close to call. There are 538 total electoral votes, with 270 needed to win the election. This nonpartisan analysis of publicly released polling data shows a total of 197 electoral votes in the “Solid Bush” or “Leaning Bush” columns and 181 electoral votes in the “Solid Kerry” or “Leaning Kerry” columns, where the candidates are leading by at least 5 percentage points. Adding the states that are slightly leaning for either of the candidates, Mr. Bush is leading 254-242, with Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin in the “tossup” column, where polls are inconsistent and/or show a dead-heat. In light of recent polls, we have moved New Hampshire from “Toss-up” to “Slightly Leaning Kerry” and Oregon from “Leaning Kerry” to “Slightly Leaning Kerry.”