An analysis of recent statewide and national polls shows the race for president tightening even more in the final weeks before the election. There are 538 total electoral votes, with 270 needed to win the election.

This nonpartisan analysis of publicly released polling data shows a total of 183 electoral votes in the “Solid Bush” or “Leaning Bush” columns and 164 electoral votes in the “Solid Kerry” or “Leaning Kerry” columns, where the candidates are leading by at least 5 percentage points. Adding the states that are slightly leaning for either candidate, Mr. Kerry is leading 238-227, with Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin in the “toss-up” column, where polls are inconsistent and/or show a dead-heat. In light of recent polls, we have moved New Hampshire from “Slightly Leaning Kerry” to “Toss-up,” Michigan from “Leaning Kerry” to “Slightly Leaning Kerry,” Colorado and Nevada from “Slightly Leaning Bush” to “Leaning Bush,” Virginia from “Leaning Bush” to “Slightly Leaning Bush,” and Tennessee from “Leaning Bush” to “Solid Bush.”

Surprisingly, despite the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the Iraq war, and other domestic and international developments over the past four years, this projected electoral map is almost unchanged from the electoral map for the 2000 election. With only 11 days to go to Election Day, the 27 states in the Bush column all went to Mr. Bush in 2000, and the 18 states in the Kerry column all went to Vice President Gore in 2000.

Among the toss-up states, Florida, New Hampshire, and Ohio went to Mr. Bush in 2000, and Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin went to Mr. Gore. However, the margin of victory in five of the six states was 1% or less. Although Mr. Bush carried Ohio by 4 points in 2000, it appears the race in Ohio is even closer this time, and Ohio may ultimately prove to be the key to the election.