Britain’s Next Prime Minister – But for How Long?

The next prime minister of Britain was in New York yesterday, addressing the Clinton Global Initiative. When asked where Gordon Brown was speaking, the woman on the desk answered, “Poverty. Second floor,” which is hardly doing him justice. As the longest serving Chancellor of the Exchequer since 1832, Mr. Brown has transformed the British economy, ironing out its peaks and troughs, boosting the value of the pound, and allowing the British people 10 uninterrupted years of unprecedented prosperity.Not that Mr. Brown was much interested in wealthy Westerners yesterday. He was back on the road relaying his shtick on how the rich nations, through public and private partnerships, can encourage entrepreneurship among the poor, mostly African nations and head off disasters. Like Tony Blair, Mr. Brown has a naturally eloquent speaking style, in a soft Lowlands Scottish brogue, and a clear and convincing command of facts and arguments that makes him eminently persuasive.When he spoke of his deal with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to boost immunization and develop drugs against malaria that would save 5 million lives, he left little doubt that this was no idle boast and that the aim was achievable. He said Western drug companies spend just 7% of their research and development budgets on finding drugs that would benefit the developing world, which amounts to 90% of the world’s population.When he spoke of how little it cost to educate a child in Africa — a total of just $100 — and how he had persuaded countries to follow Britain’s example to give $50 million over 10 years, again it sounded like a good idea. As a no-nonsense history graduate and Ph.D. student from Edinburgh University, he left the audience in no doubt that he knows of what he speaks.Mr. Brown was so impressive, indeed, that after the second protracted display of verbal dexterity the moderator of the panel on which he was sitting, the former president of the World Bank, James Wolfenson, alluding to the announcement by Mr. Blair that he would be stepping down next year, said, “I hope this presages your ability to do this on a broader scale sometime soon,” which provoked a loud and heart-felt round of applause from the 300 in the room.But how soon will Mr. Brown be given the chance to enter the front door of Number Ten Downing Street as his own man? And how will this affect Anglo-American relations? Since October 2004, when Mr. Blair perhaps foolishly followed the example of Theodore Roosevelt in saying he would not run again, there has been agitation by Labour members of parliament and the British people for the change to be made sooner rather than later. Earlier this month the pressure from within the government reached a head which forced Mr. Blair’s hand, leaving America’s closest ally rather ignominiously to declare that he would be gone by May.But as Harold Wilson said, even a week is a long time in politics. And the longer Mr. Blair hangs on, the less likely Mr. Brown will slip into his seat at the center of the Cabinet table. Delay allows others to organize against him. And with the youthful Conservative leader David Cameron making progress in the polls, there may be a significant move to switch to someone younger. Mr. Blair and Mr. Brown are so close in age, in policies, in outlook that what had always been thought of as Mr. Brown’s destiny may falter.If Mr. Blair did the decent thing and resigned in the middle of next week’s Labour conference, crowning Mr. Brown on the way out, how would the new prime minister view America, George W. Bush, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?The answer, perhaps, came around the margins of his talk on poverty yesterday in which Mr. Brown quoted, tellingly, Henry Ford, Winston Churchill, and Martin Luther King. There is no doubt Mr. Brown is a strong and devoted Atlanticist who has stalwartly kept the Europeans and their single currency at one remove.For the last 20 years he has vacationed in Cape Cod. Since his marriage in 2000, he has taken with him his wife Sarah and now their children, Jennifer and John, where, implausibly perhaps, but for those who know him quite typically, he has nestled down on the beach with a copy of the Federalist Papers or the latest biography of a Founding Father.He is highly knowledgeable about American political history and the early years of the Republic, which, like his beloved Edinburgh, was a product of the Enlightenment. He values hard work and, as a son of the kirk — his father was a Presbyterian minister — piety, modesty and honesty. He counts among his friends Senator Kennedy, Bill Clinton, James Carville and Alan Greenspan. And if, when elected, he is not seen embracing President Bush as closely as his predecessor, it will be because he is a prudent politician who wishes to ensure victory in the next general election.

Britain’s Next Prime Minister – But for How Long?

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