WASHINGTON – Senator Lieberman of Connecticut, fresh from a two-day visit to Iraq over the Thanksgiving holiday, said yesterday he was hopeful American forces could begin a “significant” withdrawal by the end of next year or in 2007.

“The country is now in reach of going from Saddam Hussein to self-government and, I’d add, self-protection,” the Democrat said in a conference call with reporters. “That would be a remarkable transformation.”

Mr. Lieberman said the effectiveness of Iraqi security forces and the ability of a new Iraqi government to rule after the December 15 elections are critical factors in determining when American troops could come home. But if all goes well, he forsees a pullout beginning a year from now. “If Iraqi forces continue to gain the confidence the American military sees there now … we will be able to draw down our forces,” he said.

Mr. Lieberman has visited Iraq four times in 17 months. He said there are signs life is returning to normal, including a profusion of cell phones and satellite TV dishes on rooftops.

“About two-thirds of the country is in really pretty good shape,” he said, noting most attacks are in the so-called “Sunni Triangle” region. “Overall, I came back encouraged.”

Mr. Lieberman said he hopes President Bush’s speech tonight will give a clearer picture to the American public of the progress being made in the war.

“It’s time for some details,” Mr. Lieberman said. “He’s gotta describe some of the progress that I saw there. It’s gotta be realistic.”

American military officials told him they hope that by next year, two-thirds of Iraq’s military will be able to carry the fight to insurgents with limited logistical support from American forces. Mr. Lieberman said American commanders had learned from their early mistakes and were successfully pursuing a “clear-hold-build” strategy against rebel forces.