Beware of the Winds of Enthusiasm

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

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NEW YORK SUN CONTRIBUTOR

Some elections are about persuasion. This one is about turnout. In past presidential debates, candidates have tried to change people’s minds and win over undecideds. In this year’s presidential and vice presidential debates, the candidates have tried to increase the enthusiasm of their base.


The results have shown up in the polls, most vividly in those polls that don’t weight the results to match the party identification of the last couple of elections.


Thus, President Bush zoomed up in some polls right after the Republican National Convention. The first post-convention Gallup poll had him ahead of Senator Kerry by 52% to 45%, compared to a 48% to 46% lead before the convention.


Gallup is volatile because its likely voter screen is very tight, so that not much more than a majority of registered voters are classed as likely voters. The post-convention sample had more Republicans and fewer Democrats than the pre-convention poll. That’s evidence that Republicans felt a lot more enthusiastic about their president after the convention than before.


Similarly, Gallup showed Kerry spiking to a 49% to 49% tie after the first debate, as compared to a 52% to 44% Bush lead in Gallup’s last pre-debate poll. That’s evidence that the balance of enthusiasm tilted toward the Democrats after the debate.


Pollster John Zogby, who weights his results by party identification, shows much less movement. Starting with a poll taken during the convention, Mr. Zogby has shown Mr. Bush at 46% and Mr. Kerry between 42% and 45%.


Who is right? The answer, I suspect, is somewhere in between. Mr. Zogby has got it right in one sense: Very few Republicans are abandoning Mr. Bush, and not many more Democrats are abandoning Mr. Kerry.


But Gallup also has a point. Republican and Democratic turnout is not the same year after year. The 2000 VNS exit poll sample was 39% Democratic, 35% Republican. But in 2002, the turnout was apparently more heavily weighted to the Republicans, though we’re not sure because the exit poll was flawed and not conducted in every state.


As for this year, no one is sure. Both sides are paying unprecedented attention to turnout. The Bush campaign from the beginning has devoted far greater resources than previous Republican campaigns on voter registration and turnout operations. Bush spokesmen say they have attracted more than 1 million volunteers, with more than 50,000 in critical states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Democrats are also devoting more resources to registration and turnout than in previous years. They are relying on the labor unions, which have been their mainstay in the past, and also on liberally funded 527 organizations.


There is also a difference in motivation on the two sides. Democrats are motivated more by hate – not too strong a word – of Mr. Bush than they are by positive feelings toward Mr. Kerry, the candidate they settled on quickly to avoid the electoral disaster they thought they’d face if they nominated Howard Dean. Republicans are motivated more – not by love, that is too strong a word – but by affection for Mr. Bush, and for the way he has stood up under the attacks of his opponents and the press.


That affection seems likely to be strengthened by Mr. Bush’s performance at the second debate in St. Louis. Mr. Bush showed a sense of command and a command of facts and argument much greater than he had eight days before in Coral Gables, Fla. He seemed at ease and even cracked jokes.


Mr. Kerry, on the other hand, often seemed on the defensive and fell into the habit of repeating himself that hurt Mr. Bush in their earlier encounter. His stentorian tones were unleavened by humor.


As this is written, no poll results have been announced, but my guess is that the balance of enthusiasm is likely to tilt toward Mr. Bush by about the same amount it tilted against him after the first debate. If that’s right, Mr. Bush’s numbers are likely to spike upward in the Gallup poll and to rise slightly in polls that weight for party identification.


But that may not be the final move. The balance of enthusiasm can change quickly, as we have already seen. And any significant change could change the outcome of this election.

NY Sun
NEW YORK SUN CONTRIBUTOR

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.


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