Putin Eyes Domestic Crackdown and the Many Fronts in Ukraine

Dissent Within Russia as Oligarchs Eye ExitsPress reports linked to Ukrainian intelligence sources are saying President Putin will impose martial law throughout Russia with the rubber-stamp approval of a supine parliament. This is an indication of Kremlin nervousness over a rising tide of dissent within Russia over the war. The anti-war sentiment voiced at street protests by middle-class Muscovites is bad enough, but when some of Russia’s richest oligarchs begin to express public doubts against the war, it’s time for Mr. Putin to panic. These Russian robber barons rose to mega-wealth by stripping the economic carcass of the defunct Soviet Union. Over the past 20 years they’ve been partners-in-crime with Mr. Putin as he completed the transformation of Russia into a modern-day kleptocracy. As international sanctions now threaten to take a bit out of those ill-gotten gains — the Provençal villas, mega-yachts, and football clubs — the oligarchs of Russia are proving the truth of that adage about honor among thieves. They’re edging their way toward the door, perhaps in the hopes that they can salvage their fortunes without getting shot in the head by the FSB on Mr. Putin’s orders.Map of Ukraine, via US Central Intelligence Agency. Wikimedia CommonsThe Kiev FrontFierce battles are raging around Kiev, as the Ukrainians fight to halt the encirclement of their capital. A downed Russian Ka-50 attack helicopter on the outskirts of the city and a knocked-out Typhoon armored vehicle along the Zhytomyr highway give evidence to the bitterness of the fighting. At present, the Russian advance appears to have stalled on both the east and west banks of the Dnieper.The Southern FrontIn 2014 Mr. Putin launched a surprise invasion of Crimea and received only tepid condemnation from President Obama and the EU in response. Eight years later, Russians are using Crimea as a staging area for a two-pronged assault into mainland Ukraine.The eastern prong has pushed along the coast of the Azov Sea with the self-evident objective of linking up with pro-Russian insurgents in the breakaway province of Donetsk. This armored assault from Crimea was reinforced by an amphibious landing of Russian Naval Infantry some 50 miles west of Mariupol, a port city of 400,000 inhabitants on the northern coast of the Azov Sea. Continued Ukrainian possession of Mariupol constitutes a major obstacle in the path of advancing Russian forces. The fall of the city to Russia would threaten the right flank of Ukrainian defenses, forcing a major withdrawal to the northwest.The western Russian thrust from Crimea has captured a bridgehead over the Dnieper River at Kherson, an important milestone in its advance on the major Ukrainian port city of Odessa. The capture of Odessa would sever Ukrainian access to the Black Sea, making it a major Russian operational objective. If this were to happen Ukraine would become entirely dependent for resupply upon overland logistics routes from Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland.The Kharkiv FrontThe battle for Ukraine’s second-largest city has the Russians resorting to heavy ballistic missile and artillery barrages in the face of dogged resistance from Ukrainian infantry. While dozens of civilians have been killed, the Russians are about to learn the same bitter tactical lessons their grandfathers taught the Germans at Stalingrad: Pounding a modern city into rubble only makes it all the more defensible. Streets that were previously open to vehicular traffic become impassible, while the city’s defenders have even better positions from which they can decimate attacking units.

Putin Eyes Domestic Crackdown and the Many Fronts in Ukraine

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