Manning Needs Colts’ Defense To Step Up

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

This weekend’s top NFL contests will both get prime-time, nationally televised attention as the NFL fills in the gap left on Saturdays by the absence of college football. In each contest, one team still fighting for a playoff berth will try to prove itself on the road against a conference foe whose place in the postseason is already assured.


In Sunday’s marquee matchup, the Colts’ Peyton Manning will attempt to break Dan Marino’s single-season record of 48 touchdown passes, a feat that may prove exceedingly difficult against the always stingy Baltimore defense. But as these two AFC rivals look ahead to the playoffs, other concerns may trump the individual exploits of Eli’s older brother.


BALTIMORE (8-5) AT INDIANAPOLIS (10-3)


This game features a matchup of two knowns, and a matchup of two unknowns. The former will get the attention, but the latter is more important in the long run.


The popular press angle on this game is clear: Manning tries to break Marino’s record against a Baltimore defense whose ability to wreak havoc on opposing offenses is exceeded only by their ability to boast and preen afterwards. Manning may be having the greatest passing season of all time. But he would trade it all for the opportunity to win a Lombardi Trophy, which that calls for championship performances from the other players who wear the horseshoe on their helmets.


Which is why, despite Manning’s record chase, the other side of this game is more intriguing. The battle between the Colts’ defense and the Ravens’ offense will truly reveal how qualified these teams are to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.


For Baltimore, the best news of the season is the development of quarterback Kyle Boller. His passing performance in the season’s first five games cost the Ravens -7.8 points compared to a replacement-level quarterback. Since the bye week, however, he has been worth 23.9 points over replacement level. While he’s certainly not one of the league’s top passers, Boller has finally become a player who can actively contribute to victories.


A big part of Boller’s improvement owes to the emergence of rookie receiver Clarence Moore, particularly in the red zone. At 6 feet, 6 inches Moore helps alleviate Boller’s tendency to throw too high. The receiver corps has also been bolstered by the return of injured tight end Todd Heap, who frees more of the field for other receivers.


Last year, with Jamal Lewis running for over 2,000 yards, the Ravens running game built a reputation that exceeded its actual performance. This year, with Lewis supplemented occasionally by Chester Taylor, the Ravens have been quietly effective on the ground. The running game will be an important part of beating the Colts because the recent progress of the Indianapolis pass defense is not matched by a similar improvement in stopping the run.


The Week 10 whacking of Houston was the turning point for the Colts defense – but only when it comes to stopping the pass. In the first nine weeks, Indianapolis gave up 7.3 net yards per pass play and 4.8 yards per run. In the past five games, they have given up only 4.8 net yards per pass play – and 4.8 yards per run.


The Colts pride themselves on their strong pass rush. Defensive end Dwight Freeney leads the league with 13 sacks. Robert Mathis plays the opposite defensive end position on passing downs, and is third in the league with 10.5 sacks. Freeney, in particular, requires double-teaming on every pass play.


But when your defensive ends are labeled “undersized” in nearly every press report, it is not a good sign for stopping the run. Freeney will be matched up against Jonathan Ogden and Edwin Mulitalo, considered by many to be the best left-side offensive line tandem in the league.


The Colts prefer to play zone coverage against the pass, but if they have to bring safety Mike Doss up to help stop the run, it will leave either Heap or Moore in one-on-one coverage against Indianapolis’s mediocre cornerbacks. If the Colts jump out to a big early lead, though, the Baltimore running game will become a non-issue, and the Colts defense may get a chance to shine.


We know that the Colts can score against most teams, and we know that the Ravens can stop almost anyone. But if the Colts’ defense can significantly outplay the Ravens’ offense, it will be a positive sign for their playoff hopes. Similarly, if the Ravens’ offense can outplay the Colts’ defense, the same hope will live in Baltimore.


CAROLINA (6-7) AT ATLANTA (10-3)


Saturday night’s battle features two teams going in opposite directions, although you wouldn’t know it to look at Atlanta’s record. By now most people know that the Panthers have turned a 1-7 start into a legitimate run at the playoffs. Atlanta, meanwhile, has masked a recent decline with victories over some of the league’s worst teams: New Orleans, Oakland, and the Giants.


A close analysis shows that Carolina is the superior team, and the margin is steadily growing. My play-by-play breakdown ranks Carolina as the 11th best team in the NFL, while Atlanta is no. 16.A method that gives more weight to recent performance places Carolina at no.9 while dropping Atlanta to no. 20.


When Carolina has the ball, the matchup will be fairly even. The Panthers’ offense is on a hot streak and well-balanced between quarterback Jake Delhomme and running back Nick Goings. But the Atlanta defense is also balanced and reasonably strong, although not spectacular.


The game becomes lopsided when Atlanta is on offense, as their offensive strength, the ground game, is now crippled by injury. Michael Vick, of course, will have a couple of incredible scrambles for big yardage. But the conventional rushing attack, usually a mix of T.J. Duckett as the inside power runner and Warrick Dunn as the shifty outside man, is severely weakened.


Duckett, the superior performer this season, is out with a knee injury. So is fullback Justin Griffith, talented as both a blocker and receiver. So Dunn must carry the load. His weakness running inside will be exacerbated by the absence of Griffith, while his strength running outside is countered by Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker, Carolina’s strong defensive ends.


Atlanta has been among the league’s worst passing teams this season, and if Dunn can’t get the running game going, it will put even more pressure on the Falcons to throw the ball successfully.


Unfortunately for Vick, Carolina’s pass defense has markedly improved during the second half of the season, and Peppers has been a pass-rush nightmare. Atlanta’s only dangerous pass receiver is tight end Alge Crumpler, who will be difficult for Carolina’s linebackers to cover. But the Panthers have made a habit of intercepting passes intended for tight ends this season. Actually, they lead the NFL in interceptions, so they’ve made a habit of intercepting passes intended for everyone.


The New York Sun

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