Top Rookies Play Very Different Roles

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

This year’s race for Rookie of the Year in the NBA, already a two-man contest between the Knicks forward Channing Frye and guard Chris Paul of the New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets, should spark an enlightening debate about the value of different positions on the court. Instead, it has produced almost none, and most observers are treating it is as a near foregone conclusion that the award will go to Paul.


To be sure, Paul has been a dynamic force this year, and Knicks fans should take a good look at him when his Hornets visit Madison Square Garden on Saturday night. Paul figures to be a top player for many years to come. The 20-year-old Wake Forest product has averaged 16.1 points, 7.2 assists, and 5.3 rebounds a game while shooting a respectable 43.3%. His play, plus continued excellent work from forward David West, are a major reason why the Hornets, 18-64 last year and not expected to improve substantially this season, stand at 18-19.


That mark is especially impressive considering the Hornets have to play in the NBA’s toughest division, the Southwest, alongside San Antonio, Dallas, and Memphis, three of the six best teams in the league. Add in the fact that the Hornets traded starting center Jamal Magliore during the preseason and were forced to relocate due to the ravages of Hurricane Katrina, and Paul becomes something of a public face for a real life story of triumph over adversity.


But don’t let it cloud your vision – the case for Frye is strong, too. His solid play kept the Knicks from completely sinking into the Hudson River during their awful start, and he played a key role in their recent six-game winning streak. The 6-foot-11-inch forward from the University of Arizona is averaging 14.5 points and 6.1 rebounds per game and impressively shooting 51.4%.


Frye and Paul tower over all other rookies in what was supposed to be a pretty solid freshmen class. Houston’s Luther Head, Golden State’s Ike Diogu, Indiana’s Saurunas Jasikevicius, Milwaukee’s Andrew Bogut, Utah’s Deron Williams, Toronto’s Charlie Villaneuva and Jose Calderon, and two of Frye’s teammates, Nate Robinson and David Lee, have all had produced enough to make their teams feel good about their future, but none are having seasons that scream future All-Star.


On the face of their production, it looks like the race is close, but Paul owns a distinct advantage over Frye. But a closer look at the numbers suggests the race is really a dead heat. One of the principal advances of the new basketball metrics is to eliminate uncommon denominators and create fairer comparisons, and per game stats are a fine case in point. Paul’s production comes in 35.8 minutes per game, while Frye accomplishes his in just 26 minutes per game. – about 25% less floor time. Normalize their numbers to a true common denominator – per 40 minutes – and you have 22.2 points and 9.3 boards for Frye with Paul lagging behind at 18 points, 6.5 boards, and 8 assists. Via John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating, which is a per-minute tally of a player’s production with the league average set to 15.0, Frye checks in with 21.24 while Paul has a 21.8 rating (those assists do count for something, especially since Frye doesn’t block a lot of shots).


There’s another reason why Paul holds a slight advantage in my mind: He plays the more important position of point guard as opposed to power forward. Although we live in an age of great power forwards (the list you should be able to name off the top of your head – Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Garnett, Pau Gasol, Jermaine O’Neal, Dwight Howard – is breathtaking), it isn’t that hard to find a player with the height to be center but not the bulk. Point guard is more complicated because there a lot of small guards, but few with the court vision to quarterback an offense and the foot speed, agility, and marksmanship to force opponents to guard them closely. And it is especially rare to find a player with those abilities in his rookie season.


Last year’s awarding of the MVP to Phoenix’s Steve Nash should have touched off some debate about how the point guard position is statistically undervalued, but most of the chatter was devoted to ill-conceived arguments about race. An avid hoops fan should have little trouble naming 10 all-time retired greats at center, power forward, small forward, and shooting guard. Ten point guards is stiffer challenge. After Magic Johnson, Oscar Robertson, John Stockton, Nate Archibald, Isiah Thomas, and Bob Cousy, there’s a pretty substantial dropoff to the likes of Maurice Cheeks, Lenny Wilkens, and Mark Jackson. And that only gives you nine.


The scarcity of greatness at the point guard position should be a key element of basketball discussion, but it isn’t when it comes to the Rookie of the Year race in part because few observers recognize that the race really is close. Perhaps if Frye’s minutes go up during Stephon Marbury’s absence, he’ll enjoy a spike in production that will bolster his candidacy. Meanwhile, it’s the rarity of Paul’s play at his position, not his per game averages, that should give him an edge in the Rookie of the Year race.


mjohnson@nysun.com


The New York Sun

© 2025 The New York Sun Company, LLC. All rights reserved.

Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. The material on this site is protected by copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used.

The New York Sun

Sign in or  create a free account

or
By continuing you agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use