The Chinese-Russian Wager on the War

A Chinese power play disguised as a peace plan for the war in Ukraine reminds us of one piece of advice we heard long ago: Beware of Communists bearing gifts. Chairman Xi Jinping’s relations with his co-pilot in the Kremlin are well reflected in the 12-point plan published by the Chinese foreign ministry on the war’s first anniversary. They’re working on what could be described as the cripple-America air force.The lead of the sketchy roadmap is an old staple of China’s foreign policy: “Respecting the sovereignty of all countries.” Beijing has been using that shibboleth for decades to assail American interventions in places like Saddam’s Iraq. True, “territorial integrity” is a cornerstone of the United Nations charter. Yet, that charter is anchored in an America-led world order that Messrs. Xi and Putin strive to upend. When Beijing preaches respect for sovereignty, what goes through the minds of the people of Taiwan? What would fishermen at Scarborough Shoal in the Philippines think? Or any Japanese living near the Senkaku Islands? Neighboring territories of the Communist behemoth have been violated for decades. Mr. Putin, who is still mourning the demise of the Soviet Union, could surely say da to Mr. Xi’s interpretation of “sovereignty.”The reality behind Mr. Xi’s so-called peace plan is that he is losing trust in his comrade. While the Chicom strongman would love to see his junior partner humiliate America in Ukraine, he is less sure, a year into the battle, that Mr. Putin is a winner. Hint: The plan calls for “keeping nuclear power plants safe” — an implicit nod to Russia’s hazardous occupation of Europe’s largest peaceful nuclear facility at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia. No doubt Mr. Putin grasps that Mr. Xi grasps that his calls for “ceasing hostilities” and “resuming peace talks” are a mirage at this stage of the war. China is betting here that Russia could win after all, as long as it sticks with Mr. Putin’s World War I-like campaign of attrition. That would lead to battle fatigue, and by the war’s next anniversary America will quit supporting Ukraine. Why not, after Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan?Washington is doing its best to brush aside Mr. Xi’s gambit. “I expect many countries will call for peace today,” State Secretary Blinken told the UN Security Council Friday. He railed against seizing land by force and erasing borders. Countering Beijing’s proposed “cease in hostilities,” Mr. Blinken said, “Russia will use any pause in fighting to consolidate control over the territory it has illegally seized and replenish its forces for further attacks.” While Mr. Blinken is correct that plans like Mr. Xi’s aid Mr. Putin’s war, our president has yet to articulate a victory strategy. Mr. Biden’s failure, or inability, to explain why we back Ukraine beyond brief bromides in the State of the Union, echoes America’s forementioned failures in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Unless Mr. Biden offers a proper war plan, the Chinese-Russian wager could well pay off.

The Chinese-Russian Wager on the War

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