Abortion as ‘Defining Issue’ Loses Its Luster Among Voters

In 2020, the Senate majority leader, Charles “Chuck” Schumer, said that Republicans had “released the whirlwind” and would “pay the price” for challenging Roe v. Wade. Earlier this year, it looked like that whirlwind was beginning to materialize.For a moment in late August abortion seemed to be the defining issue of this midterm election, with women and Democrats dominating new voter rolls and Democrats outperforming expectations in a handful of special elections.While it’s clear that abortion has remained an important issue, with Morning Consult reporting that 51 percent of voters rank it as “very important” as of October 28, it’s also clear that it isn’t shaping up to be the silver bullet Democrats hoped it would be.A political scientist at the University of Georgia, Charles Bullock, thinks that there may have been room to diversify Democratic messaging to address other issues.“Here in Georgia every taxpayer is getting a rebate on their state income tax and all of that is paid for by Covid money,” he said. “Neither Rafael Warnock nor Stacy Abrams are talking about it.”Mr. Bullock, however, doesn’t think that the focus on abortion was a mistake, and says it could still prove an issue that gets Democratic voters out to the polls this year.“Democrats focused so much on abortion because they saw back in the summer that abortion was a mobilizing issue,” he said. “The problem Democrats have on inflation is that it’s happened on their watch.”While abortion grew in importance throughout the summer, it never approached the economy as a top issue. Today, 77 percent of voters rank “economy” as a “very important issue,” according to the same Morning Consult poll.Even crime, an issue that was underpolled for most of the election cycle, is outpacing abortion, with 61 percent of voters ranking it as “very important,” per Morning Consult.Democrats, however, may have invested too much of their money and time hammering on the message of reproductive rights — not because it’s unimportant, but because it is not the only issue on voters’ minds.Data from the nonpartisan research firm AdImpact showed that Democrats spent some $124 million on abortion-related television ads through mid September. Even now, the airwaves are dominated by Democratic ads on the topic. According to an October 10, AdImpact analysis, abortion also dominates in the digital space, with more investment on abortion-related ads than any other national issue.An October 25 analysis of more than 1,000 ads by the Washington Post also found that Democrats have spent more than $103 million for ads on the issue since Labor Day. Democratic ads related to the economy and crime remain few and far between.While some swing state Democrats, like Representatives Daniel Kildee or Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, have expressed confidence that abortion will be the issue to give them the winning edge, there are reasons to believe it might not.A November 1 poll from the Wall Street Journal provides some evidence to confirm abortion’s unusual prevalence in this year’s election, with the issue ranking third among top issues behind inflation and threats to democracy.The same poll, however, also shows that issues like inflation may ultimately sway more voters’ minds when it comes time to cast a ballot. The Journal reports that favorability among suburban women has shifted 26 points away from Democrats since the paper’s August poll, giving Republicans a 15-point advantage on the eve of the election.Some Democrats, recognizing that a focus on abortion may have come at the opportunity cost of addressing economic woes, are coming around to defend themselves on these two issues.One Democratic congressman, Mark Levin, recently released an ad touting the so-called Inflation Reduction Act and saying he’s been working to address the issue. In New York, Governor Hochul has released a new ad defending her record on crime.Even President Biden has chimed in, claiming at a press conference Friday that Republicans would add $3 trillion to the deficit and institute “the kind of policies that have failed the country before and will fail it again.”While this last minute pivot might prove to be too little, too late, some, like the editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, Amy Walter, argue the Democrats were right to focus on abortion.“It’s not that Democrats are talking about abortion INSTEAD of the economy,” she wrote. “It’s that abortion was ALWAYS seen as an opportunity to give Democrats a chance to reset the focus from a struggling economy.”In her opinion, there was “no magic ‘economic message’ that’s going to convince people the economy is actually doing awesome.”

Abortion as ‘Defining Issue’ Loses Its Luster Among Voters

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