China, After Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz, Moves Toward Huge Russian Gas Pipeline

Iran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz is pushing Communist China to turn north to Russia for “the largest, the most massive and capital-intensive gas project in the world.” That is how state company Gazprom’s chief executive, Alexei Miller, describes Power of Siberia 2, a 2,500-mile long, $34 billion pipeline that would pump Arctic gas to China’s coastal megacities.Today at Beijing, Mr. Miller and President Vladimir Putin promoted the security of this landline in talks with the Chinese party boss, Xi Jinping, and Chinese energy officials. Souring on seaborne energy supplies, Chinese officials are acutely aware that 45 percent of their imported oil passes through the Strait. Closing of this maritime chokepoint seems to presage a new energy era.For years, the Arctic megaproject has been discussed, with talks foundering on issues of price and routing. For strategic reasons, China is reluctant to become overly dependent on one nation for energy supplies. Already, 30 percent of China’s imported gas — by pipeline and by tanker — comes from Russia. At current levels of consumption, the Arctic pipeline alone would supply 12 percent of China’s total gas needs.Yet in a little-noticed move, 12 days after the American-Israeli attack on Iran, China’s National People’s Congress approved a new five-year plan that includes language to speed up planning for Power of Siberia 2. The line would allow Russia to double gas supplies to China in the 2030s.Presidents Vladimir Putin, right, and Xi Jinping at Beijing, May 20, 2026. Alexander Kazakov, Sputnik, Kremlin pool via AP“Xi and Putin may agree to the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline this week,” an Atlantic Council fellow, Joseph Webster, wrote Sunday in his China-Russia Report blog. Referring to China souring on seaborne energy supplies, he added: “The PRC’s oil security would be enhanced if it can access greater overland oil volumes from Russia.”After the Xi-Putin talks today at Beijing, the Kremlin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, told Russian reporters that “some nuances remain to be ironed out” for the pipeline, but an “understanding already exists.”For Russia, full approval of what could be the world’s most expensive pipeline would be a sorely needed economic shot in the arm. Until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in 2022, Russian Arctic gas flowed West to Europe. Due to sanctions, Europe stopped buying Russian gas. Next year, it is to stop buying Russian oil. China pays for Russian gas about 30 percent less than the Europeans did.Switching to the east from the west, Russian now depends on China for about one-third of its foreign trade. Briefing reporters at Moscow yesterday, a Kremlin foreign policy advisor, Yuri Ushakov, said “practically all” payments in this $240 billion bilateral trade are now made in yuan or rubles.President Vladimir Putin, right, and President Xi Jinping inspect an honor guard at Beijing, May 20, 2026. Maxim Shemetov/pool via APThe Russians come to Beijing this week as decidedly junior partners. Russia accounts for 4 percent of China’s foreign trade. Exemplified by the Arctic gas project, China has a neo-colonial economic relationship with Russia. China largely imports raw materials from Russia, and then sends finished products north.In 1991, after the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia’s economy was 35 percent larger than China’s. One generation later, China’s $20 trillion economy is almost 10 times larger than Russia’s.This relationship was captured over the weekend at a bilateral trade fair at Harbin, a northeastern Chinese city once ruled by Russia. Russia’s deputy prime minister, Yury Trutnev, was crestfallen when he saw his country’s exhibits. He told reporters: “When I saw that we only had honey and crabs, while our friends had drones and robots, I must admit I was a bit upset.” Much is made of the fact that Russia’s leader flew to Beijing five days after President Trump. However, Mr. Putin has met with Mr. Xi at least 40 times, including on 25 trips to China.President Trump proposes a toast during a state dinner with President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People, May 14, 2026, Beijing. AP/Mark SchiefelbeinA briefing on Mr. Trump’s visit and perhaps a lecture on Ukraine are expected. Feathers were ruffled yesterday when the Financial Times, citing several American officials “familiar” with an official post-trip briefing, reported that Mr. Xi told Mr. Trump last week that Mr. Putin might end up regretting his invasion of Ukraine. Spokesmen for all three countries immediately denied the report. China maintains that it is neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It sells dual-use technology, such as drone engines, to both sides. Yesterday, Reuters reported that China’s armed forces secretly trained about 200 Russian soldiers in drone usage in China late last year and some have returned to fight in Ukraine.

China, After Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz, Moves Toward Huge Russian Gas Pipeline

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