Gold-Star Political Analysts Move Four Senate Races Away From GOP Column

The Cook Political Report, a newsletter showcasing expert election analysis, is changing its forecasts for the likely outcomes of four Senate races this year. All four races have now moved farther from the Republican column, according to the outlet. Democrats are strongly favored to win the House majority this year, given the history of midterms going against the party that controls the White House; the strength of Democrats’ recruitment operation; and the small number of seats Democrats must flip in order to take the House. Flipping the Senate, however, always seemed like a bit of a pipe dream. Over the course of the last few months, however, it is looking more plausible that Democrats could pull it off. The Cook Political Report puts each of the 435 House seats and each Senate seat that is being contested in a given year into one of several columns. They are said to “lean” toward a party; be “likely” to go to that party; or be “solid” in favor of a party, meaning the outcome is not in doubt. Seats that are too close to call are rated as “toss-up.”On Monday, the analysts said the Democrats’ chances of holding or winning Senate seats have improved since lst year in North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, and Nebraska. In all four states, Democrat or Democrat-aligned candidates have been raking in money and faring well in the polls. Two races — North Carolina and Georgia — have been moved from the “toss-up” category to the “lean Democratic” column. North Carolina may be the biggest recruitment coup of the cycle, with a popular former governor, Roy Cooper, carrying the Democratic banner after a lobbying campaign by Senator Chuck Schumer. Mr. Cooper twice won the governorship on the same nights that President Trump won his state in 2016 and 2020. He left office in January 2025 with an approval rating of just about 50 percent and a disapproval rating in the mid-thirties. So far, he has a commanding lead over his GOP opponent, Michael Whatley, who most recently served as chairman of the Republican National Committee. Mr. Whatley has never held public office. Polling averages show Mr. Cooper winning the Senate race by anywhere from seven to nine points. On the fundraising side, he is miles ahead of Mr. Whatley, with more than $14.2 million in his war chest, according to the most recent campaign finance disclosures, while Mr. Whatley has just just $2.5 million in his account. In Georgia, Senator Jon Ossoff has benefited from a fractured Republican primary field, whose members have been focused more on fighting each other than the senator himself. Polling averages show him beating any one of his Republican opponents by about three points. He has not trailed any of the Republicans in any public poll in the last year. In an even better sign for the Georgia Democrat, campaign finance filings show he has more than $25 million for his general election effort. All three of his GOP opponents have a paltry $8.5 million on hand, combined. Ohio is another story of recruitment. A former lawmaker, Senator Sherrod Brown, is running in the special election to fill the remaining two years of Vice President Vance’s term. Whether Mr. Brown or the incumbent Republican, Senator Jon Husted, wins this November, the victor will have to run again for a full Senate term in 2028. Though Mr. Brown lost re-election in 2024, he fared far better than other Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris lost Ohio to Mr. Trump by more than 11 points that year while Mr. Brown lost by just 3.5 points — a 7.5 percent overperformance compared to the top of the ticket. The Cook Political Report has moved the Ohio race from “lean Republican” to “toss-up,” in no small part due to Mr. Brown’s unique strengths in the state. Polling currently shows a tied race between Messrs. Brown and Husted, though the Democratic candidate has $9.9 million in his campaign account, while the GOP nominee has only $6 million, according to the most recent filings. The strangest race of this year may be in Nebraska, where a mechanic and veteran, Dan Osborn, is running as an independent to unseat Senator Pete Ricketts. While Mr. Osborn will not be the Democratic nominee, he has run a populist, Bernie Sanders-style race railing against billionaires and big agriculture. The Nebraska Democratic Party has endorsed Mr. Osborn in the race. While Nebraska is a deep-red state, Mr. Osborn has some unique political assets, considering he is not running as a Democrat and does not associate himself with the party’s national leaders. In 2024, he ran an independent campaign against Senator Deb Fischer and came within seven points of winning that race, despite Mr. Trump winning Nebraska that same day by more than 20 points.The Cook Political Report has now moved the Nebraska race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.”

Gold-Star Political Analysts Move Four Senate Races Away From GOP Column

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