Poll: Canadians Say Attack on Homeland Is More Likely From America Than China or Russia

TORONTO — Amid rising cross-border tensions, a stunning 46 percent of Canadians have told a pollster they could be willing to die defending their country against a foreign invasion which, among them, a plurality agrees is more likely to come from America than either Russia or China.That figure, based on a poll conducted in May and released this week, is up by eight percentage points since the last time the question was asked a year earlier. The poll was taken before the latest wave of anger prompted by a mounting trade war with America and President Trump’s renaming of the smallest of the five Great Lakes to America from Ontario.“Canadians across the political spectrum are rallying round the Maple Leaf,” reads an analysis accompanying the survey by the Cascade Institute, a non-profit research center located at Royal Roads University at Victoria, British Columbia. “But we’re still in the confrontation’s early stage, where outrage feels good and comes easily. The true costs will come later.”Nevertheless, the institute concludes, “For a majority of Canadians, national pride appears anchored in genuine resolve to bear substantial personal costs defending our country against any and all who might come after us.”The conclusion is consistent with multiple polls showing approval rates as high as 78 percent for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision to walk away from a trade deal with America that his government concluded would have infringed on Canadian sovereignty. Deal breakers included provisions that would have impacted protections for the nation’s French language and required Ottawa to align its global tariff policies with those of the United States.In another sign of hardening Canadian attitudes, a commentary this week in the establishment-oriented Toronto Globe and Mail suggests that Canada should develop “a total-defence approach akin to what Finland historically used to preserve its independence from Russia: a complete mobilization of society around preparedness.”“Canadians now face an existential choice that they’ve never confronted in their lifetimes,” writes author and academic John Rapley: “whether to continue living in a sovereign, independent country or become the 51st American state. The country will have to be prepared to stand its ground if it wishes to remain independent.”The Cascade Institute survey of 1,800 respondents found a seven-point drop from a year earlier in the percentage of persons who said they would be willing to join a civil defense force in the event of an invasion and a four-point drop in the share who said they would be willing to volunteer for military service.The percentage saying they are ready to resist a foreign invader in some way remained stable from 2025, with 40 percent willing to take part in nonviolent resistance and 15 percent saying they are ready for violent resistance.The biggest shift, the pollsters said, came in response to the question whether the respondent would be willing to die for the country in the event of an invasion. The share of “no” responses dropped 13 points from a year earlier to 34 percent, while those saying “yes,” either unconditionally or depending on the situation, jumped eight points to 46 percent.That willingness rises with age, the pollsters found, topping out at 51 percent among baby boomers and Gen X. Perhaps surprisingly, it reached that peak of 51 percent in the Trump-friendly western province of Alberta where a secession referendum is scheduled for later this year.The institute also asked respondents whether they thought a foreign invasion was more likely to come from China, Russia or the United States. While all three outcomes were considered less likely than a year ago, “more than a third of respondents still believed that a U.S. attack was at least ‘somewhat likely,’ more than 10 points higher than for either Russia or China,” the pollsters stated. “Given developments over the last week, the U.S. figure would almost certainly be even higher today.”

Poll: Canadians Say Attack on Homeland Is More Likely From America Than China or Russia

Poll: Canadians Say Attack on Homeland Is More Likely From America Than China or Russia

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