Republicans To Kick Off a Historic Third Attempt at Budget Reconciliation, Though Many Admit It Will Be a Heavy Lift

Republicans this week will kick off their attempt at passing a third reconciliation bill in only two years — something many realize could be difficult, if not impossible, to accomplish. In the 50 years since the reconciliation process was established, never have lawmakers been able to pass three budget reform bills in less than two years. The reconciliation process has become especially popular in the last 10 years, with President Trump using it to pass his tax cuts bill during his first term and President Biden using it twice for pandemic relief and later his climate control bill. Republicans used the process last year to pass the Big Beautiful Bill, and again deployed it in order to fund the president’s mass deportation agenda. Reconciliation is a relatively simple process which allows lawmakers to bypass the Senate’s 60-vote threshold to end a debate and proceed to a final bill. The only catch is that every aspect of a reconciliation bill must primarily deal with revenues or spending. At the heart of this third reconciliation bill will be a $350 billion increase in Pentagon spending outside of the normal appropriations process. The White House has asked for a $1.5 trillion military budget for the coming year — a 50 percent increase over last year. Democrats have already dismissed that out of hand, with many saying they would not go higher than about $1.1 trillion. It became abundantly clear earlier this year that Democrats would not go along with the $1.5 trillion ask after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth testified before the Senate and House subcommittees charged with passing the annual Pentagon funding bill. The $1.5 trillion is on top of the nearly $90 billion the White House is requesting in the wake of the Iran war, most of which would be used to replenish munitions stockpiles. The chairwoman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Senator Susan Collins, previously told the New York Sun that she was not on board with using reconciliation to add that additional $350 billion to this year’s Pentagon budget. Ms. Collins did not attend a meeting with Mr. Hegseth and some key Senate Republicans last month as the secretary tried to whip votes for the reconciliation effort. “I don’t want a third reconciliation bill,” Ms. Collins, who voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, told the Sun at the time. “I think we should try to move bills through the regular appropriations process.”The death of Senator Lindsey Graham is having an outsized impact on the reconciliation process. Before any such bill can move forward, the House and Senate Budget Committees must first create what is essentially an outline for revenue and spending changes, which Graham did for the two reconciliation bills passed since Mr. Trump returned to the White House. Now that Graham is gone, the chairmanship of the Budget Committee is all but certain to pass to Senator Ron Johnson, one of Capitol Hill’s most notorious spending hawks who will likely want every single penny in the Pentagon spending increase to be offset by spending cuts elsewhere. Mr. Johnson told reporters on Monday that he will be a team player on the reconciliation effort and that he has been meeting with Graham’s staff, though he said the same before supporting the budget resolution for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. At the time, he was demanding much steeper budget cuts. Despite concerns among hardline conservatives who — like Mr. Johnson — want meaningful cuts and worries among moderates who don’t want to rock the boat before the midterms, Speaker Mike Johnson said Monday that the Republicans are moving full steam ahead with a reconciliation budget resolution on Wednesday. On Monday, the speaker met with White House officials and members of the House Budget Committee to lay out a game plan for how to move forward in the coming days. “House Republicans continue to drive towards a budget resolution which would begin the process for Reconciliation 3.0 legislation that will include our nation’s most immediate priorities,” Mr. Johnson wrote in a post on X.

Republicans To Kick Off a Historic Third Attempt at Budget Reconciliation, Though Many Admit It Will Be a Heavy Lift

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